It was the Astros (74-71) who eked out a narrow win last night, maintaining their lead over the AL West. As for the Phillies (81-64), Wednesday presents an opportunity to earn a series victory. Even more important, Philadelphia is just four games behind the NL East-leading Braves. With plenty on the line, which of these two contenders will emerge victorious on Wednesday?
The Phillies are favorites (-156) over the Astros; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s interleague showdown between Houston and Philadelphia on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Phillies pick, best bet today
- Astros under 3.5 team runs (-115): This bet comes down to Sanchez, who has been almost unhittable at home. Houston’s lineup is worse against lefties, all while struggling over its last ten games. Keeping that in mind, fade the Astros at the plate this evening.
Astros vs. Phillies prediction, preview
In this battle between two aces, Hunter Brown will toe the slab for Houston. When healthy, the right-hander remains one of the American League’s best hurlers. Over 87.0 innings pitched (16 starts), he’s notched a 3.31 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 93 strikeouts (9.6 K/9). The former All-Star has allowed just four earned runs combined over his previous 18.1 frames (1.96 ERA). Where the right-hander gets into trouble is command; he sits at the eighth percentile with a 12.6% walk rate. However, Brown’s knack for inducing ground balls tends to produce much-needed double plays.
This Phillies lineup has been ramping up over the past few weeks. They’ve scored 170 runs since the start of August, sixth-most in the majors during that time. This group can slug with the best of them, ranking 12th in home runs (171). With that being said, plate discipline hasn’t been a strong suit. Philadelphia is averaging just 3.17 walks per game, fifth-fewest in the league. As previously mentioned, Brown’s greatest weakness is finding the strike zone. Houston’s starter also does an exceptional job at limiting hard contact. In comparison, Phillies batters are eighth in hard-hit rate (40.0%) and ninth in ground ball rate (43.4%).
Philadelphia will hand the ball to their top pitcher, Cristopher Sanchez. It’s been a career year for the southpaw, already considered one of the sport’s premier arms. Through 181.1 innings of work ( starts), he’s recorded a 2.58 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 207 strikeouts (10.3 K/9). If not for the presence of Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski, we could be looking at an NL Cy Young winner. Sanchez loves pitching at home, delivering a minuscule 1.83 ERA over 17 appearances at Citizens Bank Park. He’s also one of the best when it comes to keeping the ball inside of the park. The Dominican has a 0.7 HR/9 ratio, tied for the third-best mark in the sport among qualified starters.
Sanchez will have his work cut out for him tonight. The Astros are one of the league’s better lineups, ranking 12th in runs scored (653) and fifth in home runs (190). As always, slugger Yordan Alvarez is leading the way for the AL West leaders. With that being said, things haven’t been great recently in H-Town. Houston has scored 37 runs over its previous ten contests, seventh-worst in the majors during that stretch. In addition, the ‘Stros only have the 15th-best OPS against left-handed pitchers (.702). They’ll need to up their game against one of the sport’s most lethal starting pitchers.
Best Bet: Astros under 3.5 team runs (-115)
Brown vs. this Phillies lineup is a bit of a coin flip. Philadelphia’s bats tend to perform well at home, but Houston’s starter is no pushover. Instead, the safest bet on the board tonight may revolve around Sanchez. The Astros aren’t great against lefties, and they’ve looked shaky on offense recently. That doesn’t inspire much confidence on Wednesday against an elite Phillies hurler.
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