On Wednesday evening, a three-game series between NL Central rivals ends with one more matchup in Milwaukee. The Brewers took the first two legs in hand and are now trying to complete the sweep against the Chicago Cubs, who are all but out of the running for the division’s top spot but remain a real threat in the MLB Postseason as a Wild Card squad. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Cubs vs. Brewers game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Brewers prediction, preview
The Brewers remain the top dog in the MLB, becoming the first club to reach 90 wins on the year. That 90-56 record is backed up by a +170 run differential, and while they’re just 5-5 over their last 10 games, they remain one of the most formidable teams in the sport. They’ve shown that with back-to-back wins over the Cubs, who are 81-65 with a +130 run differential of their own and have been quite impressive over the last month or so in particular. However, Chicago has now dropped three straight outings.
The Cubs send RHP Kevin Gausman (9-11) to the mound, who came over via trade at the deadline. He has a 4.38 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP this season with 165 strikeouts in 162.1 IP. However, he’s 4-1 with Chicago and has a slightly better WHIP at 1.14, though the ERA is virtually unchanged. On the full season, he brings a 24.2% K% with a 6.4% BB%, also generating a high 34.2% chase rate.
RHP Logan Henderson (9-3) gets the nod for Milwaukee tonight. The 24-year-old has been excellent in his second pro season, amassing a 2.48 ERA with an 0.79 WHIP and 93 strikeouts over 83.1 IP. He carries an elite 30.0% K% with a 4.5% BB%, both grading out above the 93rd percentile. It’s no accident, either ā he’s performed right in line with a 2.64 xERA and a .198 xBA.
Over the second hald of the season, no offense has been better than the Cubs’. The club leads the sport with a 125 wRC+ and 290 runs scored over their 50 games, also pacing all teams with an .810 OPS, a .265 AVG, a .201 ISO and 82 home runs. It’s tough to find many negatives surrounding them over this span, though they’ve been limited to only three runs in each of their last three games.
The Brewers don’t have the same kind of power in their bats, but they’ve also been highly productive over the second half. They rank fourth in wRC+ (109), third in runs scored (245 in 50 games), fourth in OPS (.747), third in AVG (.261) and third in stolen bases (52) over the same sample. Unsurprisingly, they’re also fourth in wOBA at .330.
Cubs vs. Brewers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Brewers as a -131 Moneyline favorite at home this evening, while the Cubs are a +108 underdog on the road. The total is set at 7.5 combined runs.
After a pair of wins against Chicago, I like Milwaukee to follow things up by completing the sweep tonight. Henderson has emerged as one of the best young pitchers in the sport this season, and in his lone appearance against the Cubs this year which came last week, he went seven full frames with two earned runs allowed on three hits with seven strikeouts. The Cubbies are also better at the dish against lefties than righties like Henderson ā though they’re shelling pitchers regardless of handedness it seems ā which is just another added bonus.
This year, Milwaukee is 8-4 against Chicago, going 4-2 over the six matchups over the second half as well. Given the advantage on the bump and the recent record, I like the Brew Crew again here.
