Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for the night half of Wednesday’s slate: Spencer Jones and Coby Mayo.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Jones | +249 | Tomoyuki Sugano has to be the perfect matchup for Jones. The veteran RHP owns a second percentile strikeout rate (14.0%) and a third percentile whiff rate (18.2%), negating Jones’ own massive 35.9% strikeout rate. The rookie with 80 grade power should be able to produce a few batted ball events this evening off a pitcher who is giving up 2.30 long balls per nine away from Coors Field in 2026. |
| Coby Mayo | +362 | When in doubt, back Mayo to hit a home run off a left-handed pitcher. In 146 plate appearances within the split in 2026, Mayo is slashing .323/.384/.752 with a league-best 214 wRC+. His .429 ISO off southpaws is in its own stratosphere. Foster Griffin should tread lightly in this matchup. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Spencer Jones 1+ Home Run (+249)
This has to be the perfect matchup for Spencer Jones. What’s the rookie’s biggest flaw? Easily a 35.9% strikeout rate and a 19.2% swinging strike rate. However, that’s not really an issue with Tomoyuki Sugano on the mound for the Rockies on Wednesday. The veteran RHP owns a second percentile strikeout rate (14.0%) and a third percentile whiff rate (18.2%) so far in 2026. That means a lot of opponent batted ball events and, crucially, a lot of loud opponent contact. Sugano owns a first percentile opponent barrel rate (12.3%) and that’s translated into surrendering 1.85 opponent home runs per nine. Heck, he’s giving up 2.30 long balls per nine away from Coors Field. How is that even possible? Jones has 80 grade raw power. He’ll be able to take advantage of this amazing opportunity.
Coby Mayo 1+ Home Run (+362)
When in doubt, back Coby Mayo to hit a home run off a left-handed pitcher. In 146 plate appearances within the split in 2026, Mayo is slashing .323/.384/.752 with a league-best 214 wRC+. You know what else Mayo leads all qualified players in? ISO against southpaws. The former top prospect has a jaw-dropping .429 mark, which is 110 points clear of anyone else in MLB. Think about how absolutely wild that is for a moment. Foster Griffin has been solid in his return to North America, but the lefty has had his issues this season, at times, with home runs and barrels. If he misses his spot on Wednesday night at Camden, don’t be shocked if it ends up in the splash zone.
