Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s full slate: Kazuma Okamoto, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kazuma Okamoto | +368 | Okamoto hit a 423-foot missile on Monday, his team-leading 29th long ball of 2026. He’s been tearing the cover off the ball the past week, as Okamoto sports a 13.3% barrel rate and a 60.0% hard hit rate in September. Now he’ll face Jack Perkins, who has surrendered 1.96 opponent home runs per nine when toeing the rubber in Sacramento this year. |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +428 | Tatis Jr. enters play on Tuesday with a 97th percentile hard hit rate (54.2%) and a 96th percentile expected wOBA (.375). He’s also managed to hit 15 home runs since the All-Star break with a massive 16.4% barrel rate. Hopefully, Tatis will carry that momentum into a bullpen game for the Nationals. Washington’s relievers rank 29th in ERA (5.06) and 29th in opponent home runs per nine (1.39). |
| Teoscar Hernandez | +324 | In the season’s second-half, Nick Lodolo has conceded a whopping 2.82 opponent home runs per nine, along with a 14.9% opponent barrel rate that would make even a batting practice pitcher blush. Meanwhile, Hernandez still has pretty good numbers against southpaws, slashing .291/.383/.500 with a .209 ISO and a 141 wRC+. It’s been a down year for the outfielder, yet he clearly remains a threat in the box. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Home Run (+368)
The Blue Jays hit three home runs in their first game of the season at Sutter Health Park, and I expect the fireworks to keep going on Tuesday night. One of the three was an absolute 423-foot missile off the bat of Okamoto, his team-leading 29th long ball of 2026. The former NPB star has easily been Toronto’s most consistent power threat in his rookie campaign, and while he’s generally at his best against left-handed pitching, he’s simply been tearing the cover off the ball the past week. To wit, in September, Okamoto sports a 13.3% barrel rate and a 60.0% hard hit rate. He’ll be hunting No. 30 in a matchup with Jack Perkins, who has surrendered 1.96 opponent home runs per nine when toeing the rubber in Sacramento this year.
Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Home Run (+428)
After all the drama of the slow start to his season, Tatis Jr. enters play on Tuesday with a 97th percentile hard hit rate (54.2%) and a 96th percentile expected wOBA (.375). He’s also managed to hit 15 home runs since the All-Star break with a massive 16.4% barrel rate. The man is locked in. Hopefully, Tatis will carry that momentum into a matchup with the Nationals, in what is looking like a bullpen game for the club. I’d expect to see a combination of Riley Cornelio and Matt Waldron eat a majority of the innings in tonight’s contest, and both RHPs have been hit hard throughout 2026. Heck, every Washington reliever has been hit hard. The Nationals’ bullpen ranks 29th in ERA (5.06) and 29th in opponent home runs per nine (1.39). Tatis should be licking his lips.
Teoscar Hernandez 1+ Home Run (+324)
Nick Lodolo has not looked like himself since the All-Star break. Some of that is injury, but a lot of it is just underwhelming results. In the season’s second-half, Lodolo has conceded a whopping 2.82 opponent home runs per nine, along with a 14.9% opponent barrel rate that would make even a batting practice pitcher blush. It’s been a major issue for the Reds, and I don’t think it’s going to get magically fixed in a matchup with the always dangerous Dodgers. If Los Angeles has a flaw, it’s its lack of elite right-handed bats. With that said, Hernandez still has pretty good numbers against southpaws in 2026, slashing .291/.383/.500 with a .209 ISO and a 141 wRC+. It’s been a down year for the outfielder, yet he clearly remains a threat in the box.
