Even though the Champions League is always won by big names (the last team from outside of Europe’s top five leagues to ultimately claim the title was Porto in 2004), there are dark-horse stories almost every season. The ultimate dark horses in 2025/26 were Bodø/Glimt, who few had given a chance to get out of the League Phase, but Sporting Lisbon’s run to the quarterfinals and Galatasaray’s to the Round of 16 have to qualify as well.
Those two underdogs will look to build on their strong 2025/26 runs when they begin their 2026/27 campaigns with a 3 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) meeting in Lisbon.
The Leões are -120 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to take all three points, and Cimbom is +310. A draw is available at +290.
Below, I’ll break down this battle of dark horses and provide my favorite bet.
Sporting Lisbon vs. Galatasaray Best Bet:
- Sporting Lisbon to Win and Both to Score (+215): Sporting rebuilt its defense entirely over the summer, losing both of their CDM’s and a talented young center-back in Ousmane Diomande, so if Victor Osimhen were playing, I’d pick Galatasaray to at least secure a point. However, Cimbom is pretty gettable in the back, and a 2-1 result with Luis Suárez netting twice sounds about right.
Sporting Lisbon vs. Galatasaray prediction, pick
Last season, Sporting was the club that ended Bodø’s miracle run, stunningly winning 5-0 in the second leg of the Round of 16 to overturn a 3-0 deficit and advance to the quarterfinals, where it fell just 1-0 to eventual finalists and Premier League winners Arsenal. The Primeira Liga didn’t go quite as well, as the Leões fell short of their third consecutive title by eight points to Porto and currently trail the Dragões by two points, but it has still been a successful few years for Sporting overall. Similarly, 2025/26 can only be considered a massive success for Galatasaray, as it won its fourth consecutive Süper Lig title and advanced to the Champions League knockouts for the first time since 2013/14. Cimbom turned RAMS Park into a fortress, and though it eventually fell to Liverpool in the Round of 16, it currently leads the Süper Lig as it chases its fifth straight crown.
The Leões have plenty of strong players. They brought back Portugal’s top scorer, Colombian striker Luis Suárez, who already has four goals in five Primeira Liga matches after scoring 28 last season. They did lose their next two top scorers in Pedro Gonçalves and Francisco Trincão, but youngster Flávio Gonçalves has three goals in five matches and €30 million signing Rodrigo Zalazar has one goal and one assist after scoring 16 last season with Braga. Nestory Irankunda also scored for Australia at the World Cup and brings pace down the wing. All in all, Sporting managed 15 more goals than any other team in Portugal while also producing the most shots on target, and it managed the 16th-most shots on target per 90 minutes and the 14th-most goals per shot in the Champions League. Additionally, the Leões had an extremely strong defense, giving up the second-fewest goals in the Primeira Liga and the seventh-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes in the UCL. That unit is likely to take a step back in 2026/27, since defensive midfielder Morten Hjulmand, center-back Ousmane Diomande, and defensive midfielder Hidemasa Morita all left the club, but center-back Ibrahima Ba and defensive midfielder Issa Doumbia could help stabilize the team. So far, Sporting has allowed five goals in the Premeira Liga, but it’s trending in the right direction, keeping back-to-back clean sheets. Rui Silva, Diogo Costa’s backup at the World Cup, remains a reliable option, as he ranked fourth in the league in save percentage in 2025/26.
Galatasaray, a veteran-led squad, might have the bigger names, but they’re dealing with injuries, with striker Victor Osimhen out with a groin strain. At his bestOsimhen is one of the most dangerous strikers in the world, as he smashed home 22 goals in 32 matches last season in all competitions, and to replace the retired Mauro Icardi, Cimbom made a major splash, bringing in Rafael Leão from AC Milan to join Osimhen, Leroy Sané, Lucas Torreira, and Bariş Alper Yılmaz. Last season, Galatasaray tied rivals Fenerbahçe for the most goals in Süper Lig play with 77, and it ranked third in shots on target per 90 minutes. Cimbom also managed the 19th-most shots on target per 90 minutes in the Champions League, netting 16 times in 12 matches. The Istanbul side wasn’t so strong defensively, giving up the 14th-most shots on target per 90 minutes in the UCL, but it limited opponents to the fewest goals in the Süper Lig and the eighth-fewest goals per shot on target in European competition. The back line will likely remain a weakness since Galatasaray didn’t do much to address it in the summer besides bringing in El Chadaille Bitshiabu from RB Leipzig on loan, and with Mario Lemina and Wilfried Singo also out with injuries. Uğurcan Çakir started for Turkey in the World Cup and led the Süper Lig in save percentage while ranking 14th in the same stat in the Champions League, one spot ahead of Silva.
The Leões were the better team last season, especially in the defense, but after losing Hjulmand, Diomande, and Morita, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them struggle initially against tougher competition. If Galatasaray had a healthy Osimhen, I might even pick it to win the match. However, Cimbom’s defense was worse than Sporting’s last season, and it didn’t do much to address it. Galatasaray is a completely different team on the road, as it’s capable of taking down any team at RAMS Park, but Estádio José Alvalade isn’t RAMS Park. Cimbom should be able to get one past the Leões’ back line, perhaps through Leão or Yılmaz, but I’ll take Sporting to score two.
