The Reds just hung 12 on Milwaukee to finish off a third straight series win. They’ve beaten the Cubs, Padres and Brewers along the way. Now Terry Francona plans to piggyback Brandon Williamson behind Chase Burns to keep Burns’ innings down. If Williamson starts walking people, I expect the Dodgers to make Francona go back to the bullpen. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Cincinnati Reds.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dodgers vs. Reds prediction, preview
Burns is going to punch some guys out (2.79 ERA; 28.9 K%). Hitters miss 51.5% of their swings against his slider (.252 xSLG), which he throws 38.6% of the time. I’d give Mookie Betts a chance to put it in play, though (11.3 K%). Betts has gone 12-for-38 with two homers, four doubles and 11 RBIs, including Sunday’s three-run homer. Burns could keep LA quiet early. I want the full game here, with Williamson and Cincinnati’s relievers on the hook.
Williamson has walked 22 hitters and struck out 24 in 33.1 innings (5.94 ERA, 1.65 WHIP). I don’t want that assignment against Freddie Freeman, who’s collected eight hits and seven walks in his last 25 at-bats. Max Muncy had three hits Sunday, too, although that accounts for most of his recent 4-for-22. I’d like to see him do it again before I’m ready to say he’s back in bopper form.
Los Angeles is bringing Emmet Sheehan back from Triple-A after four starts with a 1.50 ERA. Big league hitters have been teeing off on his four-seamer (.631 SLG; 19.8 Barrel%), despite missing 29.2% of their swings. Elly De La Cruz misses just 19.7% against four-seamers (.617 xSLG). Eleven strikeouts in 33 at-bats haven’t stopped him from collecting 16 hits, two homers and seven walks. Sal Stewart has been harder to strike out lately: 13-for-36, three homers, four strikeouts.
Reds vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
Francona used five relievers Sunday, and Cincinnati’s pen has been putting plenty of men on (4.63 ERA, 1.45 WHIP). Emilio Pagan worked both days, but after 25 total pitches, I wouldn’t assume he’s down. Bobby Miller covered three of the Dodgers’ six relief innings Sunday, while Alex Vesia, Evan Phillips and Tanner Scott all rested. LA’s bullpen has a 3.95 ERA. I want Cincinnati scoring before those three get involved.
I’m taking over 8.5. Even if Shohei Ohtani can’t go, I expect Betts and Freeman to make Williamson pay for putting men on. Sheehan has already allowed 20 homers in 95.1 innings, and now he gets Elly and Stewart while they’re both hitting.
Best bet: Over 8.5 (-105).
Projected score: Dodgers 6, Reds 4.
Best bet: Dodgers vs. Reds o8.5 total runs (-105)
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