Washington keeps finding new ways to choke away games during an already choked-away season. Cade Cavalli threw six sharp innings yesterday before Tommy Edman’s three-run homer swapped the lead. The Nats must be weary, man. But I don’t think that means against the Dodgers tonight they’ll stop doing the two things that’ve defined their season: scoring big, and flopping bigger. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Washington Nationals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dodgers vs. Nationals prediction, preview
The Dodgers are running a bit of a bullpen game, so the Nats’ll have to score against different looks. Justin Wrobleski’s starting, but he only hrew 36 pitches across two innings Tuesday in his return from the injured list. I wouldn’t expect more than 50 today. Bobby Miller is the likely piggyback for up to 50 pitches, but he’s just completed his own rehab from injury, too. The Nats have ways in. Wrobleski has allowed 20 homers in 128⅓ innings this season. Eight of those homers came in his last four appearances. I’m already concerned about the quality of his pitch shapes against this Washington lineup.
Daylen Lile has been hitting enough individually to make Washington’s entire lineup still threatening. Since 8/20, he has five homers, four doubles, and a 1.152 OPS across 67 PAs. His .619 OPS against lefties isn’t exactly thrilling to see when considering the Wrobleski matchup, but any subsequent right-hander flips the game to his hot streak’s advantage. Dylan Crews also has six doubles over the same stretch, and an .829 season OPS against left-handed pitching.
Andrew Alvarez could squash the total on his own. Washington’s starter tonight throws his nasty curveball 30.8% of the time, and opponents have slugged an almost-invisible .233 against it. He induces ground balls 50% of the time. He does walk 4.07 hitters per nine innings, however, so the big Dodgers bats just need be patient. Any kind of stubborn approach from the LA lineup would bring the bullpen into play early.
Nationals vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
That specific handoff—Alvarez-to-bullpen—is where we’ll look for the most scoring. Washington’s bullpen owns a 5.05 ERA and has surrendered 99 homers in 643 innings on the year. Its relievers have also allowed 41% of inherited runners to score, making Alvarez’s walks a potential problem beyond his final pitch. Mookie Betts has a .870 OPS since Aug. 20, while Teoscar Hernández is hitting .300 during that stretch. Their recent contact offers Los Angeles a way to turn those free baserunners into crooked numbers.
Shohei Ohtani’s uncertain availability isn’t my favorite continuing development for tonight’s scoring outlook, but we forge on. Washington’s relief problems and Los Angeles’ limping, abbreviated pitching plan make this total look too low. I expect the Dodgers to prevail, with Washington contributing enough offense to keep this total within reach throughout the evening.
Best bet: Over 8 runs (-118)
Projected score: Dodgers 5, Nationals 4
Best bet: Dodgers vs. Nationals o8.0 total runs scored (-120)
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