Sunday’s theme for the home run card: pull-side power, pulled fly-ball rates, and three swings that can beat middling conditions and gettable pitch shapes.
As always, I’m here with a breakdown on my three favorite picks from today’s slate of games to swat one out.
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Odds | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers to hit a home run | +305 | Rafael Devers has hammered 10 homers in 78 plate appearances, and I’m backing him again after his last 10 tracked balls averaged 99.5 mph with 80% hard contact, a 22-degree launch angle, and three homers. |
| Miguel Vargas to hit a home run | +320 | Miguel Vargas has posted a .926 OPS across his last 70 plate appearances, while his last 10 tracked balls averaged 92.6 mph with a 27.9-degree launch angle and only two grounders, keeping that airborne swing on my card against Bailey Ober. |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run | +325 | PCA has launched eight homers in his last 71 plate appearances, and I’m sticking with him from the leadoff spot after his last 10 tracked balls averaged 96.4 mph with 60% hard contact. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB home run props today: analysis
Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+305)
I keep coming back to Devers today, even though it feels like he can’t possibly hit another. Can he? The underlying numbers behind all his best and most recent swings tell the same story as the box score. His last ten tracked batted balls averaged 99.5mph; eight cleared 95 mph, four with a 15–40-degree launch angle. As we all know, three left the yard completely. Ten homers in 78 plate appearances since August 20 is an outrageous pace.
Christian Scott gives us Raffy yet another matchup meant for the moonshot. He throws his four-seamer 47.3% of the time and his cutter 18.2%; Devers owns a .545 slugging percentage against four-seamers and an .894 mark against cutters. Scott’s sweeper is the obstacle, holding opponents to a .250 SLG. Conditions, admittedly, are not that great, either: breezes are blowing in at Citi field today.
Still, Devers is confirmed second in the Giants’ lineup, has 28 homers in 401 plate appearances against righties, and should get another look at a Mets bullpen that threw 128 pitches over the previous two days. A hot dude is a hot dude.
Miguel Vargas to hit a home run (+320)
Murakami may have finally left the yard again last night, but Vargas is who I’m on today. His underlying metrics are that of a hitter who works his way through at-bats with great efficiency so as to ferry the pitcher to his sweet spot. Vargas has just a 17.5% strikeout rate against a very-good 13.8% barrel rate, and a .513 xSLG behind those two. His 41.2% sweet-spot rate is my favorite of all these stats. He has put 70.1% of his batted balls in the air this season, with 28.2% of all contact pulled in the air. He’s pure pull-power.
Not good for Bailey Ober! A dude who’s somehow making an 88 mph four-seamer and a just-okay changeup into a decent MLB career. Vargas, however, has slugged .571 against changeups, backed by a .663 xSLG. Ober’s meatball of a four-seamer has allowed a .533 slugging percentage to opposing hitters.
Ober’s sweeper, to be fair, remains excellent, so not every pitch he throws will be a beachball for Vargas. Still, Vargas is regularly third in the lineup, and, even after Ober, Minnesota’s bullpen carries a 4.72 ERA behind its starter.
Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run (+325)
PCA deserves almost a permanent place on your home run tickets day-in and day-out, which is a wild thing to say after August/September of 2025. 39 dingers on the year, including eight in 71 PAs since August 20th, alongside a 13.2% barrel rate and .496 expected slugging percentage—he’s MVPete, man. Today, the number we love most is his 33.9% pulled-air rate. All his stance adjustments have ironed out a swing that drives the ball consistently airborne toward the short side of the field.
Tyler Phillips makes is more beatable than his surface 3.43 ERA suggests. His sinker accounts for 25.6% of his pitches and has surrendered a .517 slugging percentage with only a 6.4% whiff rate. Crow-Armstrong has slugged .514 against sinkers. Phillips also owns an effective splitter; PCA’s .931 slug against that pitch comes in only 32 plate appearances. He’s confirmed leadoff in the order. Miami’s bullpen has already thrown 184 pitches so far this weekend.
