One of the biggest games on Saturday’s MLB slate takes place at LoanDepot Park. The Cubs (80-62) are a World Series contender, riding a powerful offense towards the National League’s top wild card spot. It’s a different story for the Marlins (71-71), a young club that has plenty on the line. Miami is just 3.5 games behind the Padres for a spot in the postseason; taking down Chicago would give this group a boost. Which side has the edge this afternoon in South Beach?
The Cubs are favorites (-126) over the Marlins; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between Chicago and Miami on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Marlins pick, best bet today
- Cubs vs. Marlins over 8.5 runs (+100): Assad and Gusto have both outperformed their peripherals, making each arm a risky bet. Chicago’s league-leading offense is an obvious problem for Miami. However, a scrappy Marlins lineup has impressed against right-handed pitching this season. At even money, the over offers plenty of value this afternoon.
Cubs vs. Marlins prediction, preview
Javier Assad, just called back up from Triple-A Iowa, will get the start today. During his time in the big leagues this season, the right-hander has been effective. Through 83.1 innings of work, he’s notched a 3.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 55 strikeouts (5.9 K/9). The Mexican hurler often splits time as a starter or reliever; don’t expect much more than three or four innings on Saturday. It’s safe to say Assad has been fairly fortunate this season. He ranks within the tenth percentile or worse in chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate. The only thing he seems to do exceptionally well is limiting free passes (2.3 BB/9).
Inducing weak contact works against plenty of clubs across the big leagues. That may not hold true when facing today’s opponents. The Marlins aren’t an offensive juggernaut by any means, but they do a decent job of putting bat to ball. This group is 13th in batting average (.247), sixth in on-base percentage (.325) and 12th in OPS (.723). In addition, the Fish are second in all of baseball with 146 stolen bases. An injury to Xavier Edwards (thumb) is worth noting, but there’s enough speedsters in this lineup to overcome his absence. Miami hitters have recorded a .736 OPS against right-handed pitching, ninth-best in the majors.
It’s been a slugfest this summer at Wrigley Field. Chicago’s league-leading offense paces the sport with 199 home runs and 4.21 walks per game. A disciplined, dangerous lineup has the potential to make life difficult on just about anyone. Surprisingly, they’ve been even better on the road with 5.40 runs per game. There hasn’t been much let up for this group as of late, leading baseball with 68 runs over their last ten contests. There’s star power all over, headlined by MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong (158 wRC+). Eight members of the active roster (minimum 200 plate appearances) have put up a wRC+ of 100 or greater.
Keeping all that in mind, the odds are against Ryan Gusto on Saturday. To be fair, Miami’s hurler hasn’t been bad this season. He comes into this one with a solid 3.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 67.2 innings. Still, much like Assad, he’s due for some negative regression. Gusto’s 79th percentile walk rate (6.7%) is solid, but not much else. A 13th percentile xBA (.268) and 14th percentile hard-hit rate (43.3%) are cause for concern. Even if Gusto holds his own, he’s not likely to offer much length. That leaves a mediocre, banged up Marlins bullpen to finish the job.
Best Bet: Cubs vs. Marlins over 8.5 runs (+100)
It’d be easy to just back the Cubs and their red-hot offense. However, it’s fair to express some trepidation with the inconsistent Assad on the mound tonight. Instead, a safer play might be to back the over. Miami has proven it can work opposing right-handers, utilizing a combination of contact and speed on the bases. Given Chicago’s dominance, three or four runs from the Marlins might be all that’s needed for this bet to cash in.
More MLB Content & Betting Picks
- MLB DFS Picks Today: Top DraftKings Targets, Values for Saturday 9/5/26
- MLB Best Bets: Top home run props for Saturday 9/5/26
Tail all of today’s MLB action in the DKN Betting Group here.
