It was the Braves (84-57) that came out on top last night, earning a 5-2 win over the Phillies (79-62). Now, these two rivals are set to take the field for the second of a three-game set. Atlanta has plenty to play for, hoping to earn a bye in the top-heavy National League. Ditto for Philadelphia, currently in possession of the Senior Circuit’s second wild card spot. Who has the edge this evening at Citizens Bank Park?
The Phillies are favorites (-163) over the Braves; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between Atlanta and Philadelphia on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Phillies pick, best bet today
- Braves vs. Phillies under 4.5 runs – First 5 Innings (-125): Perez has been a sneaky-good starter all season, and now faces a struggling Phillies offense. As for Wheeler, he’s more than capable of keeping a streaky group of Braves hitters at bay this evening. Don’t expect much scoring this Saturday in Philadelphia.
Braves vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Martin Perez gets the nod this evening for the visitors. All things considered, the 35-year-old has been everything Atlanta fans could have hoped for coming into the season. Over 121.0 innings pitched (22 starts), he’s recorded a 3.05 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 91 strikeouts (6.8 K/9). What the southpaw lacks in whiffs, he makes up for with an 80th percentile ground ball rate (48.2%) and 87th percentile barrel rate (5.1%). That ability to induce weak contact could pay dividends against a Phillies lineup that loves swinging for the fences. With that being said, Perez’s home/away splits are some of baseball’s most drastic. He’s been almost unhittable in Atlanta (1.99 ERA) and fairly pedestrian on the road (4.42 ERA).
In many ways, this Phillies offense is similar to Perez; they perform much better at home. However, it’s been tough sledding for this group over the past two weeks. They’ve scored 34 runs over their last ten games, tied for the fourth-worst mark in baseball during that stretch. Philadelphia batters have posted the league’s ninth-highest ground ball rate (43.6%) and seventh-lowest barrel rate (7.3%). In other words, it’s the kind of lineup that could struggle against a crafty veteran. In fact, they already have; Perez held the Phillies scoreless over six innings back on April 17th.
On the other side, it’ll be Zack Wheeler making his 24th start of the season. An otherwise stellar campaign has hit a bit of a speed bump recently. The three-time All-Star has looked off on the mound, posting a dismal 6.75 ERA and 1.82 WHIP over his previous five outings. Still, it’s likely just a blip on the radar for one of baseball’s premier arms. After all, he just tossed six innings of one-run ball against the Angels last weekend. The right-hander’s advanced metrics remain superb, sitting within the 86th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate.
Atlanta has been a force at the plate all season, ranking ninth in runs (658), seventh in homers (179) and 11th in OPS (.725). With that being said, this is a difficult spot for any group of hitters. The Braves have produced a middling .704 OPS on the road against right-handed pitching. That’s only good enough for 18th-best in the majors. During Wheeler’s lone meeting this season with Atlanta, on April 25th, he allowed two runs over 5.0 innings pitched. Big bats such as Ronald Acuna Jr. (.232 BA) and Matt Olson (.211 BA) haven’t done much against Philadelphia’s ace.
Best Bet: Braves vs. Phillies under 4.5 runs – First 5 Innings (-125)
Recent struggles aside, Wheeler remains one of baseball’s best pitchers. The Braves are a capable, above-average offense, but this is about as difficult as it gets. On the other side, Perez’s soft contact approach has already given the Phillies some difficulty this season. The home team isn’t lighting it up offensively at the moment either. Five runs feels like one too many given the talent on the mound tonight.
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