Major League Baseball has all 30 teams on the schedule for another packed Saturday of exciting September baseball. With so many storylines and matchups to consider, several strong options emerge if you’re in search of home run props to attack. The weather looks fairly cooperative overall, with a few spots where the warm temperatures could be favorable for home runs. Taking a look at the matchups, current form and weather forecasts, my top home run props for Saturday are from Jackson Chourio, Wilyer Abreu, and Randy Arozarena.
It should be a great Saturday to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio | Brewers | Chourio has 4 HR in his last 8 G while hitting 14-for-37 (.378) with a 56.7% hard-hit rate and 13.3% barrel rate. He has smashed LHP this season, with a .220 ISO, .385 wOBA, and 12.8% barrel rate, and he is 3-for 8 with 2 HR against Andrew Abbott. |
| Wilyer Abreu | Red Sox | Abreu is in Baltimore as the Red Sox look to take a third straight game against the O’s. He is 8-for-16 in his career vs. Chris Bassitt, who has given up a .397 wOBA to lefties this season. He already has a career-high 23 HR this year and will look to add another blast on Saturday. |
| Randy Arozarena | Mariners | Arozarena has 8 HR in his last 23 games with a .408 wOBA and .326 ISO. He takes on lefty Jeffrey Springs, who has allowed 33 homers in 25 starts this season. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Saturday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Jackson Chourio to Hit a Home Run (+350)
The Brewers and Reds meet at Great American Ball Park, where the weather forecast is for winds blowing out and temperatures in the 80s. There could be some rain in the area, but as long as the game is on schedule, Chourio is a strong option to consider in Saturday’s home run props. Chourio has hit exactly 21 home runs in each of his last three seasons, although he played 106 games this season and still has a month to go to set a new career high.
The 22-year-old righty has four homers in his last eight games, going 14-for-37 (.378) with a 56.7% hard-hit rate and 13.3% barrel rate. He hit his 21st homer on Wednesday in Chicago.
Chourio and the Brewers will face lefty Andrew Abbott of the Reds on Saturday, who has allowed 21 homers in 28 starts this season, while working to a 4.49 ERA and a 4.78 home ERA. Righties have hit 15 of the 21 homers against Abbott this year, which sets up well for Chourio to stay hot.
On the season, Chourio has hit .307 against lefties with a .220 ISO, .385 wOBA, and 12.8% barrel rate. In his past meetings with Abbott, Chourio is 3-for-8 with two home runs. He has good momentum and a good history against Abbott, so getting him at +350 is a solid place to start your home run props this Saturday.
Wilyer Abreu to Hit a Home Run (+357)
In another divisional matchup, the Red Sox are at Camden Yards to take on Chris Bassitt and the Orioles.
Bassitt has allowed nine homers in 79 2/3 innings this season, with lefties like Abreu hitting eight of those long balls and posting a .326 batting average, .397 wOBA and a 7.4% barrel rate. Abreu has had success against Bassitt in the past, going 8-for-16 with two doubles and two home runs.
Abreu is in the midst of a breakout season, and he already set a new personal best with 23 homers this year when he hit this homer off the Yankees last weekend.
Abreu hasn’t homered in the week since then, but he does still have a .390 wOBA over that span with four doubles and a 9.1% barrel rate. Abreu is anchoring the middle of the Red Sox lineup with Willson Contreras out, and with this favorable matchup against Bassitt, Abreu is a good value at over +350.
Randy Arozarena to Hit a Home Run (+415)
To round out Saturday’s home run props, let’s look at the latest game of the day and take the longest shot in my three home run props for the day. Randy Arozarena and the Mariners have dropped the first two games of their series with the A’s, but they’re in a great matchup on Saturday night against lefty Jeffrey Springs.
Springs is 3-13 this year with a 6.37 ERA, and the 33-year-old veteran has allowed 33 homers in 25 games. Righties have 23 of the 33 homers against him on the year while posting a 9.9% barrel rate and .368 wOBA.
Arozarena is up to 22 homers on the season after hitting two blasts in Boston earlier this week.
Arozarena is 4-for-14 with a home run in his past meetings against Springs, and he comes in with some great momentum after hitting eight homers in his last 23 games. During that span, he has a .408 wOBA and .326 ISO, and his home run momentum makes him a solid play against Springs as the Mariners look to get back on track on Saturday night against the A’s.
