Packers coach Matt LaFleur has been asking quarterback Jordan Love to throw Green Bay out of a dreadful running game over and over again. The Packers average just 60.6 rushing yards and pass on 66.1% of plays; Love still threw three touchdowns to beat Carolina. He has had extra preparation time since that Thursday game. New England quarterback Drake Maye has been scoring even more freely, accounting for at least three touchdowns in five straight games, but returns to Gillette Stadium with another depleted group of receivers. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Patriots vs. Packers prediction, preview
Running back Josh Jacobs scored on the ground and through the air against Carolina, though he gained a miserable 39 rushing yards on 21 carries. Love had to throw again and again, completing 30 of 41 passes for 288 yards. Receiver Christian Watson caught eight for 113 and carries no designation despite his broken rib. Fellow wideout Matthew Golden has caught at least six passes in four straight games. Love has thrown 16 touchdowns this season while working around the blocking failures. He has been earning them.
New England can make that work harder with man coverage, which has troubled Love more than split-safety looks. Green Bay is missing center Sean Rhyan, so Love cannot afford to wait indefinitely for Watson to shake loose. Love can also attack through tight end Tucker Kraft: he has averaged 2.88 yards per route against man since 2025. With cornerback Carlton Davis and safety Kevin Byard questionable, the Patriots may have to defend those catches without their usual coverage help. Love should have places to go even if New England crowds Watson.
Maye has been carving up the coverage Green Bay prefers. Against two-high structures this season, he has averaged 8.8 yards per attempt; the Packers show them on 67.8% of dropbacks. Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels can work the intermediate openings Detroit found with double digs, or the slant-flat combinations Carolina used. Maye just completed 16 of 20 throws for 199 yards and two touchdowns against Miami. Give him those openings and he can string together first downs without forcing the ball over the safeties.
Packers vs. Patriots pick, best bet
McDaniels has fewer players to send into them. Receiver A.J. Brown and running back TreVeyon Henderson are out, with receiver Romeo Doubs on injured reserve. Wideout Mack Hollins returns after four missed games; his workload is uncertain. Tight end Hunter Henry is questionable after lasting eight snaps last week. Rookie replacement Eli Raridon ran routes on 77% of dropbacks and caught one pass for five yards. Maye has never played a full game without Henry. Raridon has to catch more of those short throws if Henry cannot go.
Running back Rhamondre Stevenson can relieve some of that pressure after carrying 19 times for 82 yards at Miami. Green Bay has allowed backs only 1.77 adjusted yards before contact per carry, though, and Patriots right tackle Morgan Moses is questionable. Stalled handoffs would leave Maye working longer downs with fewer familiar targets, even with Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons out. I still expect Maye to win this game. Love has been finishing enough drives through his own line trouble that I’m taking Green Bay +3.5 at -118. Against this diminished New England receiving group, I’ll pay for the hook.
Best bet: Packers +3.5 (-118)
Projected score: Patriots 24, Packers 23.
