It’s Friday before a long weekend, and everyone’s eyes are on the glorious return to and advent of the college college football season. Good. I see it as an advantage. Sauron’s evil eye is more focused on tickets and handles with pigskin, but we’re still out here thinking about wood & leather. Batted balls seem to be traveling more this week, so we’re back into dabbling for some power payouts to launch into the weekend.
You can find a bunch of my home run parlays in the MLB Dugout Betting Group on your DraftKings app (make sure you play your straights! round robin when necessary, etc.!). The following five plays are the ones I’m heaviest on today in terms of stake.
Here’s how I’ll play the slate. I’ll also be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting insights & analysis.
Best MLB player prop bets today
| Player prop pick | Odds | Why I like it |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Jensen HR | +355 | Carter Jensen is the hottest rookie on the planet. Jameson Taillon has coughed up a .717 xSLG and 1a 5.5% barrel rate to lefties, and gets 96-degree Kauffman with the wind blowing out. |
| Spencer Jones HR | +565 | Spencer Jones has hammered four homers and six extra-base hits since Aug. 20th with a 21.4% barrel rate. Buehler has yielded a .503 xSLG to lefties. Simple fit. |
| Rafael Devers o1.5 total bases | +135 | Rafael Devers has slugged seven homers and eight extra-base hits since Aug. 20th with 96.3mph EV and a 19% barrel rate over that time. Nolan McLean’s four-seamer has yielded a .850 xSLG and a 17% barrel rate. |
| Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 total bases | +35 | Teoscar Hernandez finished the Cardinals series 6-for-13 with a walk-off double, and is as hot as he’s ever been. He’s got a 102.6-mph EV and a 80% HH rate across his last 10 BIPs, and rookie Jackson Kent’s allowed a .531 xSLG to righties. |
| Lars Nootbaar o1.5 total bases | +155 | Lars Nootbaar has drilled his last 10 BIPs at 99.6mph EV with 70% HH rate, 30% barrel rate, and 1.175 xSLG, and Cristian Javier’s 16.3% strikeout rate against lefties should give him plenty of chances to barrel one. |
In-depth analysis below.
Best MLB player prop bets today: analysis
Carter Jensen to hit a home run (+355)
Kansas City’s weather is yielding the slate’s highest total tonight; 96-degree air and an eight-mph wind out should make a typical pitchers’ park park play to the offense. Carter Jensen is likely rejoicing, seeing as he’s absolutely rakings. Since August 20th, he’s clobbered six home runs and nine extra-base hits, with a 60.6% HH rate and a 21.2% barrel rate. His L10 BIP have been even more volcanic: 100.3mph EV, seven hard hits, four barrels, and a—ahem—1.634 xSLG%(!).
Jameson Taillon has allowed left-handed hitters a 7.4% home-run rate, 15.5% barrels and .717 expected slugging on contact. His four-seamer and cutter—nearly half his arsenal—have each yielded roughly .900 xSLG on contact. Kauffman usually keeps left-handed homers in check, but Jensen and the weather are too hot to leave off my ticket.
Spencer Jones to hit a home run (+565)
The late game in San Diego thwarts a volatile Yankees lineup against veteran starter more vulnerable than the Yanks are unpredictable. Spencer Jones, at his best, is set up to strike, here. Since August 20th, the rookie has four home runs and six XBH, with a 94.3mph EV, and a 21.4% barrel rate. His last 10 balls in play include six hard hits, two barrels, and 1.275 xSLG%.
More important to the matchup, the fit is even better against Walker Buehler’s pitch mix: against Buehler’s arsenal, Jones has averaged 94.0 mph with a 60% HH rate, a 20% barrel rate, and a 1.203 xSLG. He should own what he sees, given that Buehler’s not fooling anyone these days. Lefties clock a .503 xSLG against him, and his four-seam/changeup combination has allowed the most damage. True—Petco and Jones’ 31.9% recent strikeout rate are negatives. But, at this number, they are already being priced.
Rafael Devers o1.5 total bases (+140)
The Giants meet one of Friday’s sharpest young arms in spacious Citi Field, with tonight’s forecasted wind blowing in and favoring the sort of stuff McLean delivers. Still, Rafael Devers is in the midst of enough of a hot streak to overcome both. Over his last 10 batted balls, Devers has averaged 99.7mph EV, producing a 70% HH rate, a 40% barrel rate, and a 1.382 xSLG. Since August 20th, he has seven homers and eight extra-base hits in 69 plate appearances, with a 19.0% barrel rate over that span.
Nolan McLean has been more effective recently—quite dominant, really—but left-handers still barrel him to the tune of a .553 xSLG. His four-seamer has allowed .850 xSLG on contact and a 17% barrel rate. McLean’s stuff is nasty, but if he makes a mistake, Devers is right there. Raffy’s expected contact against McLean’s full mix sits at 1.278 xSLG. It’s just park makes the straight home-run price less attractive, so we’ll take plus money on the total bases.
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 total bases (+135)
Teoscar Hernandez finished the Dodgers’ series against St. Louis 6-for-13, and ended the finale with a walk-off double. His last 10 BIPs have averaged 102.6mph EV, with an 80% HH rate and a 20% barrel rate. Against still-raw Jackson Kent’s pitching arsenal, that rises to 104.9 mph and 90% hard contact, with .970 xSLG.
Kent’s major-league stint has seen him face only 67 right-handed batters, but he still strikes out only a paltry 16.4% of them. They hit him at a 41.5% HH rate and .531 xSLG. Dodger Stadium has carried a 132 right-handed home-run factor, the wind is projected out, and Washington’s bullpen has allowed .517 recent xSLG to hitters. Teoscar should continue to rake.
Lars Nootbar o1.5 total bases (+155)
Lars Nootbaar’s loved his new digs in Arizona; his last 10 BIPs have averaged 99.6mph EV, with seven hard hits, three barrels and 1.175 xSLG. Since August 20th, he has five extra-base hits in 33 plate appearances, while bagging a 50% HH rate and a 15.4% barrel rate.
Cristian Javier’s strikeout rate against lefties is only 16.3%, which’ll allow Nootbaar plenty of chances chances to put his elite hit tool into play. Javier throws his four-seamer 43% of the time, and Nootbaar’s under-the-hood numbers against Javier’s full arsenal read strong: 99.6mph EV with 30% barrels and a 1.146 xSLG. Houston’s bullpen, too, has allowed .562 xSLG on contact since August 1, and is one of the weakest relief units in the league right now.
