Toledo Rockets vs. Michigan State Spartans (Friday – 8pm ET)
After another poor season, Michigan State made a move to bring in Pat Fitzgerald at head coach. Fitzgerald is extremely familiar with the conference after nearly two decades at Northwestern, but has been away from coaching for a couple of seasons. Generally, when a program changes hands, the new coach brings some of the talent from the last stop. That’s not the case this time around, and it should prevent Sparty from making a big jump in the first season under Fitzgerald.
But I do believe this team will be well coached and capitalize when it gets chances to win, and an opening Friday night game against Toledo is one of those opportunities. Fitzgerald prioritized adding experienced players, and while few come from power conferences, they have a lot of snaps.
The offensive line improved as 2026 progressed for the Spartans, and the one area of stability the roster does seem to have is at QB. Alessio Milivojevic was thrusted into action as a freshman and developed nicely. He gives the offense potential in his first full season as the starter.
Toledo brings in a new head coach from the FCS level. Mike Jacobs coached at Mercer, and the general perception of this hire seems to be positive. Just two starters return for Toledo, so it’ll rely on a lot of transfers, including from Mercer. I don’t know much about Jacobs, but looking at his track record last season, I’m struggling to see why he earned this promotion.
Mercer seemed constantly unprepared in 2025. It lost it’s opener to Presbyterian as a 22.5-point favorite. You’d think Mercer would be locked in the following week as a double digit favorite once again in a matchup against Wofford? Mercer squeaked out a one-point victory. Mercer got hammered when it stepped up in talent, losing 62-27 to Auburn and 47-0 to South Dakota.
Is Jacobs really going to have a brand new Toledo roster ready for a trip to Michigan State in Week 1? I think this is a spot Sparty flexes and gets Fitzgerald off to a convincing 1-0 start, before the road becomes far more difficult.
CFB Pick: Michigan State -9.5 (-110)
