We’re right back to where we started.
Each team has taken a lopsided victory to begin this crucial series in the American League Wild Card standings, which places even more importance on Thursday’s matinee rubber match. Cleveland is 1.5 games up on Toronto for the sixth-seed in the AL postseason bracket. However, if the Jays win on Thursday, they’ll not only inch closer to passing the Guardians, but they’ll have secured the season series and the tie-break.
Which club will rise to the occasion? Let’s dive into this 1:10 p.m. ET tilt and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Guardians prediction, preview
The biggest news to come out of yesterday’s 11-0 Blue Jays win wasn’t the performance of Dylan Cease, who threw six scoreless and relatively stress-free innings. No, it was instead the man that supplied the run support for his ace. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had easily his best game of the year on Wednesday night, going 3-for-4 with a mammoth home run and five RBI, which is a season-high in 2026. Any signs of life from Vladdy are appreciated, as the All-Star has struggled through a hellish campaign, hitting a putrid .232 with a 76 wRC+ dating back to the beginning of May. Toronto just doesn’t have the offensive depth to survive a four-month slump from its $500 million man, so as you’d anticipate, the team has had its issues scoring runs. The Jays rank dead-last in MLB in both ISO (.135) and expected wOBA (.295). They need that Guerrero Jr. outburst to not only be a blip on the radar.
The club could also use an elite day from Jose Soriano on the mound. Toronto paid a hefty prospect price for the right-hander at the deadline, though most figured Soriano wouldn’t be contributing to a playoff push until 2027 at the earliest. That was before the Jays got hot. Now, Toronto would welcome the man that only surrendered one earned run over his first 37.2 innings of 2026, or at least a 90th percentile version of that pitcher. In reality, Soriano’s been perfectly fine, if underwhelming, as a member of the Jays, maintaining a 4.13 ERA and a 3.73 FIP in his five starts since the trade. Still, it only takes one look at a knuckle curve or one time seeing Soriano touch 99 mph to know that there’s another level inside the 27-year-old RHP. He’s a tantalizing talent.
Opposing Soriano and the Blue Jays on Thursday afternoon will be Tanner Bibee — another pitcher who has shown flashes or brilliance, but ultimately ends up frustrating fans and front office executives with his inconsistency. Don’t get it twisted, Bibee isn’t nearly as poor as his 5-14 record would suggest, but the right-hander’s 4.40 SIERA is a career-high mark, while his 19.3% strikeout rate is a career-low. Those aren’t the directions you want to be trending in. Bibee’s biggest adversary in 2026 has been opposing LHBs, who have combined to average 1.94 home runs per nine off the veteran, thanks to an inflated 10.0% barrel rate. Well, Toronto could have as many as five or six left-handed bats in its lineup today, especially with the switch-hitting Brandon Valenzuela likely catching in place of Alejandro Kirk.
Blue Jays vs. Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Blue Jays ML (-106)
I’ve got to lean towards the slight underdogs in a matchup this close. Not only has Jose Soriano been better than Tanner Bibee throughout 2026, but the Jays are playing their best baseball since last October, with a 20-12 record since July 29. That’s primarily been against the best of the best in the AL, too.
