Looking for today’s MLB weather forecast? Below you’ll find weather assessments for all nine games on Thursday’s slate, including rain and thunderstorm chances, wind conditions, and how the forecast could affect fantasy baseball and sports betting decisions.
Today’s MLB Weather Forecast
- Highest Weather Risk: Giants at Pirates at PNC Park, where thunderstorm chances climb from 25% to nearly 70% through the afternoon game window.
- Expected Postponements: None expected across Thursday’s nine-game slate.
- Most Significant Wind: Wrigley Field carries 10 mph southerly winds at first pitch, potentially enhancing fly-ball carry before shifting easterly mid-game.
- Primary Weather Story: A Great Lakes and Ohio Valley thunderstorm pattern creates MODERATE weather risk for three games in Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Chicago.
At-a-Glance Weather Table
| Matchup | First Pitch (ET) | Weather Risk | Rain % | Wind | Temp | Roof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants at Pirates | 12:35 p.m. | MODERATE | 40-68% | 9 mph W | 88°F | Open |
| Blue Jays at Guardians | 1:10 p.m. | MODERATE | 33-52% | 8 mph W | 85°F | Open |
| Brewers at Cubs | 7:15 p.m. | MODERATE | 22-43% | 10 mph S | 72°F | Open |
MLB Games to Monitor for Weather
Giants at Pirates (12:35 p.m. ET)
Weather Risk: MODERATE
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop through the afternoon across western Pennsylvania, with precipitation chances climbing from 25% near first pitch to nearly 70% by late afternoon. The biggest concern is the middle-to-late innings, as storm coverage broadens. PNC Park’s open-air exposure leaves the game vulnerable if storms materialize as expected, though the scattered nature of the activity makes a complete washout unlikely. At least one interruption remains plausible, particularly after the fourth or fifth inning.
Weather Timeline
- 12:00-1:00 p.m. — Isolated to scattered storm chances (25-40%) as the game gets underway.
- 2:00-3:00 p.m. — Coverage increases to 51-54%; highest interruption risk during middle innings.
- 4:00 p.m. — Peak storm probability near 68%; late innings could face challenges.
- 5:00 p.m. — Storms begin tapering as the system moves east.
Blue Jays at Guardians (1:10 p.m. ET)
Weather Risk: MODERATE
The same Great Lakes thunderstorm pattern affecting Pittsburgh extends into northeast Ohio. Storm chances hold steady around 33% through the early innings before climbing to 52% by late afternoon. Conditions appear most threatening during the final third of the game. Improving morning radar trends suggest storms may arrive later than initially expected, but the risk of at least one brief interruption cannot be dismissed.
Weather Timeline
- 1:00-3:00 p.m. — Scattered chances (33-34%) with storms developing to the west.
- 4:00 p.m. — Probability increases to 48% as storm coverage expands.
- 5:00 p.m. — Peak at 52%; late-game interruption window.
- 6:00 p.m. — Gradual improvement expected after storms push through.
Brewers at Cubs (7:15 p.m. ET)
Weather Risk: MODERATE
Earlier afternoon storms clear the Chicago area by evening, leaving first pitch looking manageable with only a 22% chance of precipitation. The concern builds mid-game as a secondary round of showers and thunderstorms develops, pushing chances back to 43% by 9:00 p.m. Humidity also climbs sharply, nearing 100% by late evening. Wrigley Field’s open-air design and well-documented weather sensitivity make this a game worth monitoring, particularly from the fifth inning onward.
Weather Timeline
- 7:00-8:00 p.m. — Slight chance of storms (22%); first pitch expected on time.
- 9:00-10:00 p.m. — Chances rebuild to 43% as a secondary round develops.
- 11:00 p.m. — Storms continue with elevated humidity; lingering risk through game’s end.
Games Expected to Play in Favorable Weather
- White Sox at Astros (2:10 p.m.) — Retractable roof expected to be closed at Daikin Park. Earlier thunderstorms clear by game time. No concerns.
- Red Sox at Orioles (7:15 p.m.) — Scattered storm chances declining through the evening at Camden Yards, dropping below 10% by mid-game. Temperatures near 81°F with light winds.
- Marlins at Royals (7:40 p.m.) — Clear skies and 88°F at Kauffman Stadium with 6 mph southerly winds. No precipitation risk.
- Rays at Rangers (8:05 p.m.) — Retractable roof expected to be closed at Globe Life Field. No weather concerns.
- Athletics at Mariners (9:40 p.m.) — Morning rain clears well before first pitch at T-Mobile Park. Retractable roof available. Cool 56°F evening with light winds.
- Cardinals at Dodgers (10:10 p.m.) — Mostly cloudy skies, 64°F with calm winds at Dodger Stadium. No rain risk.
DFS and Betting Weather Notes
Giants at Pirates
Climbing thunderstorm probability throughout the afternoon creates genuine lineup uncertainty. Starting pitchers face the prospect of shortened outings if storms force an interruption, and bullpen usage could spike unpredictably. A weather-shortened game would also limit total run-scoring opportunities, adding risk to Over bets at PNC Park. Monitor radar updates closely before lock.
Blue Jays at Guardians
Similar storm risk to Pittsburgh adds a layer of volatility for DFS lineup construction. The increasing probability through the late innings could affect game completion, making full-game stacks riskier than a typical afternoon matinee. Bettors should factor the interruption potential into totals decisions.
Brewers at Cubs
Wrigley Field’s 10 mph southerly wind at first pitch could modestly improve fly-ball carry to center and left-center field, slightly favoring power hitters early in the game. However, the evening temperature drop to 72°F partially offsets that wind advantage, and the mid-game storm risk introduces additional volatility. DFS players stacking this game should understand the late-game uncertainty. Bettors may find value waiting for live opportunities if weather disrupts play.
FAQs
What wind speed affects MLB games?
Winds above 10 mph can begin to influence fly-ball carry and offensive output, particularly at open-air stadiums with favorable dimensions. Direction matters as much as speed; outward-blowing wind enhances home-run potential while inward wind suppresses it. Stadiums like Wrigley Field and Coors Field tend to amplify wind effects due to their design and location.
Do over/unders move when rain is in the forecast?
Sportsbooks may adjust totals when significant weather threatens a game, but the movement depends on the type and severity of the threat. Steady rain tends to suppress offense and push totals lower, while brief showers may not trigger any adjustment. Bettors who monitor weather ahead of the market can occasionally find value before lines move.
What MLB stadiums have retractable roofs?
Six MLB stadiums currently feature retractable roofs: Chase Field (Diamondbacks), Globe Life Field (Rangers), Daikin Park (Astros), loanDepot park (Marlins), American Family Field (Brewers), Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) and T-Mobile Park (Mariners). These venues can close their roofs during rain, extreme heat or cold, effectively removing most weather-related concerns from the equation.
How does humidity affect home runs in baseball?
Higher humidity slightly reduces air density, which can allow fly balls to carry marginally farther. The effect is modest compared to factors like wind, temperature and elevation, but it can contribute to slightly elevated offensive environments during humid summer evenings. Humidity plays a more significant role in thunderstorm development, which indirectly affects games through weather risk rather than ball flight alone.
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