One of the most frustrating running backs in fantasy football this season, J.K. Dobbins has seemingly fallen off a cliff. He was previously one of the NFL’s best runners when it came to rushing efficiency, but his numbers have nosedived… and now his workload may be dipping thanks to the emergence of a rookie teammate.
Is it finally time to drop Dobbins heading into the Week 9 waiver period?
Is it finally time to drop J.K. Dobbins?
Last season, Dobbins finished as a borderline RB2 with 11.6 FPPG, per-game production that was good for 26th at the position. He racked up 772 rushing yards on 153 carries, posting 5.0 YPC with four rushing touchdowns, too. He also ranked seventh in explosive rush rate at 14.6%, breaking off big gains on a regular basis before an injury ended his campaign after just 10 games. Overall, it was a nice first season with the Broncos for the veteran, and his production was good enough that the team offered him another contract in the offseason.
However, Dobbins’ numbers have cratered in 2026. He’s played eight games for Denver this season but has only 306 rushing yards on 94 carries. That’s good for just 3.3 YPC, the worst mark of his six-year career (excluding 2023’s one-game sample). The underlying metrics aren’t any better, either. He ranks below the 10th percentile in success rate and stuff rate, while his 6.0% explosive run rate also sits in the 12th percentile. There are few positives to glean from Dobbins’ play aside from his three touchdowns, but even those have hardly made him playable as he averages just 7.4 FPPG.
He did operate as the Broncos’ primary running back for much of the season, the one saving grace in his fantasy profile. He still leads the team in carries and reached double-digit rush attempts in five of his eight appearances, but it’s become clear that he’s now old news in this backfield. The reason for that? The breakout from Jonah Coleman has put Dobbins on alert. The fourth-round rookie led the backfield in carries in each of the last two weeks since he returned from IR, rushing a total of 20 times for 95 yards and one score. To make matters, worse, Coleman has seen six carries in the red zone over those two games, five more than the lone attempt Dobbins has taken.
Is Dobbins just old news now, even after signing a two-year deal with Denver a few months ago? Honestly, it seems the answer to that question trends towards yes. The rookie has been far more effective at 4.5 YPC this season on his 30 total rush attempts, and he brings a little bit of upside in the passing game that Dobbins doesn’t. The older runner is an early-down grinder at this point until proven otherwise, especially now that he’s seemingly ceded the lead job.
That does make it sound like he should be dropped, right? It does, but even with Coleman seemingly taking over, Dobbins still isn’t a name to cut yet. The lone reason for that is because RJ Harvey, the other running back in this backfield who handles much of the work on passing downs, just landed on IR last week and will miss at least three more games. As such, this is likely to be a two-man show led by Coleman with Dobbins in relief – just as we saw in Week 8 when the former got 11 carries with five targets and the latter handled just seven attempts. If Coleman goes down due to injury, Dobbins would see a last-gasp chance to retake the starting job.
He doesn’t belong in fantasy lineups anymore, but Dobbins is now firmly in handcuff status until Harvey comes back. The risk that you drop him and Coleman goes down – thrusting Dobbins into a featured role again – is probably greater than the payoff of many targets on the waiver wire. However, don’t hesitate to make the decision if you see better options available. Dobbins is certainly a drop candidate based on his fall-off and declining role.
