Albany has already seen a fairly immediate positive turnaround under new HC Tom Perkovich. The Great Danes averaged just 16.8 ppg and 89.3 rushing ypg last season. Perkovich’s first game in Week 0 (last week) had the team so hyped they gained 374 on the ground and a 28-14 win over UNH. Buffalo, on the other hand, enters Pete Lembo’s third year with just five returning starters and a whole bevy of new coordinators across all three phases. They’re a total wild card in the FBS this year. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Buffalo Bulls and the Albany Great Danes.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Buffalo vs. Albany prediction, preview
When he came over from Susquehanna, Perkovich brought coordinator Mike Wiand, who likes to let his quarterbacks get involved in the run game. As a unit—it was a three-headed beast, mainly—the Danes averaged 7.1 yards across 53 carries in Week 0, with RB Joey Koch breaking 144 yards on only seven attempts. QB Kai Colón added 90 yards with his legs, while secondary RB Rahshan La Mons rotated in for hammer-down carries. 347 yards, apparently and evidently, is precisely the sort of ceiling this ground game has. The threat of that alone can keep Buffalo’s rebuilt front seven on their toes for all four quarters.
Buffalo definitely defended well last season, only surrending 4.9 yards per play, but All-American linebacker Red Murdock is no longer calling the shots, there. New DC Brian Dougherty will rely on transfers Zach Bergmann and Stevie Bracey in the scond level. Buffalo’s talent is mostly in its secondary, led by Miles Greer and Kobi Blackwell. Albany’s run-heavy structure keeps the focus away from the best personnel advantages on that defense.
Buffalo’s more new on offense than defense, too. Wideot Jasaiah Gathings is the lone returning starter; every projected lineman for today’s game would be making his first Buffalo start. Hard to believe the unit’s totally gelled yet. Wingate transfer Elijah Holmes helms the QB room after throwing 24 touchdowns against six interceptions against Division II opponents. In Week 0, Albany created four sacks, and held UNH to 2.6 YPC. If they play anything like they did last week, Buffalo’s new line is due for an immediate and potentially-unpleasant test.
Albany vs. Buffalo pick, best bet
Buffalo’s QB Holmes still is the matchup’s blow-up point, because Albany’s secondary looked leaky. New Hampshire aired out 235 passing yards against Albany last week, and Colón completed only 7-of-17 passes himself. Albany will at least fall back on loading the box, and it can trust its veteran secondary against an established passer like Holmes. As such, I wouldn’t expect high-scoring as a result, here, though. Not to mention, possible showers and Albany’s preferred ground pace should drive down possession counts for both teams.
The 18.5-point spread assumes a little too much for me. A number like that needs an offense which separates quickly, and I’m not sure Buffalo can do that just yet. I would take Albany at +17 or better.
Best bet: Albany +18.5 (-108), playable to +17.
Projected score: Buffalo 27, Albany 17.
Best Bet: Albany +18.5 (-110) vs. Buffalo
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