Since the Premier League began in 1992/93, four newly-promoted teams have gone on to win each of their first two matches of the season. Three of those four teams went on to stay in the division.
Of course, there’s still a lot left to settle, but with the summer transfer window now closed and Hull City six points clear of the drop zone, the Tigers have to be feeling good. On Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET (5:30 p.m. local), they’ll face one of those teams on zero points, Aston Villa, in their second home Premier League match of their return.
Despite their position in the table, the Villans are still -115 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to take all three points, and Hull City is +310. There are +270 odds that the teams will share the spoils.
Below, I’ll break down this matchup of 2026/27 surprises and provide my favorite bet.
Hull City vs. Aston Villa Best Bet:
- Hull City or Tie (-115): I don’t want to overreact to two games, but the Tigers look more than capable of surviving the drop, and Aston Villa has been the worst team in the Premier League by virtually any metric. Hull has gotten lucky and Villa unlucky, but the rebuilt Villans lack both the personnel and the chemistry to take advantage of the Tigers’ weaknesses.
Hull City vs. Aston Villa prediction, pick
It’s impossible to secure Premier League survival (or relegation) after two matches, but given that the narratives surrounding the Tigers at the start of the season compared them primarily to 2007/08 Derby County, the worst team in Premier League history, they have to be feeling great. They opened the season with a shocking 2-0 upset over Manchester United and followed it up by claiming all three points in a relegation six-pointer against Coventry City. On the other hand, Aston Villa has to be reeling. Unai Emery’s men qualified for the Champions League last season and will begin play in that competition next week, but they looked like relegation fodder in an embarrassing 4-0 defeat to Brighton. The Villans looked better the following week and were arguably unlucky to suffer a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal, but zero points is zero points. Hull, Manchester City, Chelsea, and the Gunners are the only four teams on six points so far; Fulham, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur, and the Sky Blues all have zero.
The Tigers, on paper, don’t have nearly enough talent to survive in the Premier League, but they play a counter-attacking style that has allowed them to challenge the top flight mainstays. Semi Ajayi has never scored more than seven goals in a season at any level, but he netted Hull’s first back in the top flight, and young Senegalese center-back Nobel Mendy netted the other. Liam Millar, the Tigers’ other goal-scorer, has gone on loan to Birmingham City, but Hull City made splashes on deadline day by bringing in Ilyas Ansah from Union Berlin and Tim Iroegbunam from Everton, two young players with top-flight experience (and, in Ansah’s case, goals). So far this season, the Tigers have managed the fourth-fewest expected goals per match from the sixth-fewest shots on target and been the least clinical passing team, but they’ve finished well and have taken advantage of their set pieces and fast breaks. Additionally, Hull City has hustled defensively, conceding the 10th-fewest expected goals per match from the ninth-fewest shots on target, and it’s averaged among the most recoveries and clearances while winning both ground and aerial duels at among the highest rates. The Tigers have also been rather disciplined, committing the fourth-fewest fouls, and Kostas Tzolakis has saved all eight shots on target he’s faced, making them and Arsenal the only teams not to concede so far. He leads the league in goals prevented per 90 minutes, and Ajayi is one of 11 players yet to lose a ground duel.
By contrast, Aston Villa has really struggled. The Villans saw a massive exodus during the transfer window, as Morgan Rogers, Ollie Watkins, Ezri Konsa, Emiliano Martínez, Youri Tielemans, Donyell Malen, and Lucas Digne (among others) all left the club and Amadou Onana tore his ACL. Although they brought in plenty of talented players, including Johan Manzambi, Ibrahim Mbaye, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, and Zion Suzuki, Manzambi is injured and has been sidelined since the World Cup. With Rogers and Watkins — Villa’s two top scorers last season — both gone, the Villans have been utterly impotent in the attack so far this season, failing to register a single shot on target, producing by far the fewest expected goals, and completing passes at the fifth-lowest rate. Aston Villa hasn’t even made up for it defensively, ranking second-to-last in expected goals conceded, averaging the fourth-fewest interceptions and second-fewest blocks despite consistently being out of possession, and winning aerial duels at by far the lowest rate. It’s also committed the fourth-most fouls. In fact, Villa has been the best team in the league at playing the offsides trap, and it still hasn’t translated into any results. Suzuki was fine against the Gunners and will be a solid Premier League No. 1, but it’s hard to look at the Villans’ first two matches and find any reasons for optimism.
Of course, the Premier League season is long, and Hull City is probably still more likely than Aston Villa to ultimately face the drop (in fact, at DraftKings Sportsbook, the Tigers are -230 to go down and the Villans +2000). In fact, Villa is pretty well-suited to stop the ways in which Hull has won so far; it has been pretty sharp against set pieces, and its offsides trap should frustrate the Tigers, who rely on direct attacks. I just don’t see how the Villans’ attack improves, given that they haven’t put a shot on target yet and are seeking to rectify it with Nicolas Jackson, who’s not exactly known as a clinical finisher. Emery’s side got off to a slow start last season, as well, starting with two draws and two losses and not scoring until Matchweek 5, and the story has been similar so far. Hull has definitely gotten fortunate that its opponents have only put 25% of their shots on target and have yet to score from a header, but Villa isn’t the team that’s going to make the Tigers pay. -115 odds for Hull to take at least a point is too good to pass up.
