Week 1 of the college football season kicks off on Thursday with a clash in New Jersey. Rutgers comes into 2026 looking to make a leap in the ultra-competitive Big Ten. Taking care of business at home against a non-conference opponent marks a key first test for head coach Greg Schiano’s crew. As for UMass, the goal is to simply win a game this season. After a dismal 0-12 campaign, the Minutemen will be itching to turn the page. Can they pull off a massive upset on the road tonight?
The Scarlet Knights are listed as 29.5-point favorites over the Minutemen, with the total set at O/U 51.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Thursday’s Week 1 matchup.
UMass vs. Rutgers prediction, preview
Well, it can’t get any worse for the Minutemen this season. Joe Harasymiak’s tenure as head coach got off to the worst imaginable start possible. Still, his job security is a testament to how bad things have been in Amherst. Winning with this program has proven to be a Herculean challenge in recent years. With that being said, there’s reason for this fanbase to express some optimism. William “Pop” Watson III comes over from Virginia Tech. A dual-threat quarterback, he should give this offense more capacity to extend plays and control time of possession. Out of the backfield, Justin Williams-Thomas is a former Tennessee recruit with Power 4 experience at Cal as well.
Still, it’s impossible to get too excited over the current state of UMass’ scoring attack. Keep in mind, this group averaged an FBS-worst 11.1 points per game last season. Turning things around will take some time, even with some new faces taking the field. Traveling on the road against a Big Ten opponent isn’t exactly what you’d call a soft landing, either. Somehow, the defense was equally awful in 2025. The Minutemen surrendered a whopping 433.8 yards per game, worst in the Mid-American Conference. Opposing passers dominated against Massachusetts’ secondary, averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt. An influx of talent in the transfer portal should turn things around in theory, but we’ve gotta see it in action before buying in.
Rutgers isn’t one of the Big Ten’s elite, usually getting outclassed by the likes of Ohio State and Oregon. Regardless, Schiano has brought this program back to respectability. The program has gone 19-21 over the past three years, capped off by five wins in 2025. One-score losses to Minnesota and Penn State prevented the Scarlet Knights from gaining bowl eligibility. It was the offense that led the way in Piscataway, headlined by returning running back Antwan Raymond. The junior put together a terrific 1,241-yard, 13-touchdown campaign, and there’s no reason to think he’ll be slowing down. Star quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis is gone, but Boston College transfer Dylan Lonergan is a capable passer in his own right. He should form a connection with pass catcher KJ Duff, who racked up 1,000 receiving yards last season.
The weapons are there for Lonergan and company. However, bigger questions remain on the other side of the ball. This defense gave up a Big Ten-worst 432.8 yards per game. It’s not the kind of effort you expect from a school in this conference, let alone one led by Schiano. Most troubling, the team surrendered a college football-worst 7.0 yards per rush attempt. However, this coaching staff didn’t rest on its laurels during the offseason. Several recent additions, especially in the front seven, should lead to (at minimum) modest defensive improvement.
Best Bet: Rutgers -29.5 (-108)
UMass lost by a combined 76 points against two Power 4 opponents (Iowa and Missouri) last season. This team has difficulty winning anything, let alone playing up to high caliber competition. If nothing else, the Scarlet Knights have proven they can move the ball against subpar defenses. A dominant game from Raymond could be all the home team needs to keep the Minutemen off of the field. All signs are pointing towards a dominant Rutgers win this evening.
