Despite a middling month of August, the Dodgers (78-51) remain odds-on favorites to capture another World Series title. That’s due in large part to the man on the mound tonight, Tarik Skubal. The superstar hurler will attempt to record his first win with Los Angeles on Saturday. Standing in his way are the Pirates (63-67), desperately trying to remain in contention for a wild card spot. Will the defending champs clinch a series victory this evening at home?
The Dodgers are favorites (-260) over the Pirates; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s matchup between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Dodgers pick, best bet today
- Dodgers -1.5 runs – First 5 Innings (+105): Jones is a decent arm when he’s on point. but that’s a difficult ask against the dangerous Dodgers. On the flip side, Skubal remains a terrifying presence on the mound. Don’t be shocked if Los Angeles jumps out to an early lead.
Pirates vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
If Pittsburgh is going to pull off a massive upset, it’ll be up to Jared Jones tonight. The right-hander, undeniably talented, is often his own worst enemy. Through 64.0 innings pitched (14 starts), he’s delivered a 4.78 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 72 strikeouts (10.1 K/9). Still, it’s been more about the occasional letdown performance. On most days (key word most), Jones is an above-average hurler. He’s allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight outings. The lone outlier? An eight-run disaster vs. the Mets.
Jones has faced the Dodgers once this season, giving up two runs over 4.0 innings pitched. He’ll need to be just as good, if not better, this evening. Los Angeles, to the surprise of no one, remains one of the best lineups in baseball. The team is fourth in runs scored (645), sixth in home runs (167) and first in OPS (.764). Per usual, the duo of Shohei Ohtani (152 wRC+) and Freddie Freeman (131 wRC+) rank among the league’s best hitters. To boot, LA has recorded an MLB-best .771 OPS against righties.
The headliner tonight is none other than Skubal. It’s been another terrific, albeit injury-shortened, campaign from the two-time Cy Young winner. Over 113.2 innings (19 starts), he’s notched a 2.85 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 135 strikeouts (10.1 K/9). It’s telling that numbers such as those are considered mildly disappointing; the bar is through the roof for baseball’s best pitcher. Skubal sits within the 90th percentile or better in chase rate (36.8%), whiff rate (31.9%), strikeout rate (30.3%) and walk rate (4.5%). He’s allowed more than three earned runs on just three occasions this season.
This Pirates offense has been a pleasant surprise in 2026. They’re averaging 5.00 runs per game, third-most in the majors. However, the team has been somewhat middling at the plate recently. The Buccos have scored 85 runs over their last 20 matchups, only good enough for 15th in baseball. Skubal’s two most-used off speed pitches are the changeup and slider. Against those two offerings, Pittsburgh batters have delivered a lackluster .217/.271/.352 slash line.
Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 runs – First 5 Innings (+105)
Any time their ace is on the mound, the Dodgers are going to be favorites. However, it’s difficult to find much value on this line. Jones isn’t a scrub, but his lack of consistency could spell trouble tonight against a loaded Los Angeles lineup. In comparison, Pittsburgh could struggle against Skubal’s repertoire. Back LA early this evening at home.
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