Saturday’s MLB schedule features only a few afternoon games before the majority of the action takes place under the lights. Eight games start shortly after 7:00 p.m. ET, with three more games after 8:00 p.m. ET. It will be a very busy night of baseball with plenty of excitement, and some of the matchups in particular make it a great night to go hunting for home run props to fill the evening with some fireworks. There is a little rain in the forecast for Baltimore, Philadelphia and Denver, but there are some great hitting environments on the board to consider as well. Taking a look at the matchups, current form and weather forecasts, my top home run props for Saturday are from Corey Seager, Carson Benge and Nathaniel Lowe.
It should be a great Saturday to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Seager | Rangers | Seager is 10-for-21 in his last five games with 2 2B and a HR. He has a 15.4% barrel rate since July 31 and gets a good matchup vs. Ryan Johnson, who has an 8.20 road ERA and has allowed a 12.6% barrel rate to lefties. |
| Carson Benge | Mets | Benge is up to 15 HR this season after 4 in his last 15 games. With the wind out to RF, he’s facing Luis Castillo, who has allowed 15 of his 19 HR against to lefties, who have a .361 wOBA and 11.9% barrel rate against him. |
| Nathaniel Lowe | Guardians | Lowe and the Guardians are at homer-happy Coors Field against Gabriel Hughes and the Rockies. In his last six games, Lowe has seven hits, including 1 HR and 4 extra-base hits with a .396 wOBA over that short span. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Saturday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+335)
Seager and the Rangers are hosting the Angels this weekend and took the first game of the series with a walk-off win in extra innings on Friday. They’ll face a very favorable matchup against Ryan Johnson on Saturday night. Johnson has gone 2-7, allowing 16 homers in 60 1/3 innings. On the road, he has an 8.20 ERA on the year and has allowed seven homers in just 26 1/3 innings. Both lefties and righties have hit him hard, with lefties posting a 12.6% barrel rate and a .363 wOBA against Johnson this season.
Seager has multiple hits in five straight games, going 10-for-21 (.476) since last Saturday with two doubles and a home run. He has a 60% hard-hit rate and 13.3% barrel rate during that short stretch and a 15.4% barrel rate, three homers and a .333 batting average since July 31. He doubled and homered on Thursday against the Nationals.
Seager has hit 10 of his 13 homers against righties and has a .322 ISO on that side of the splits. Since he’s been heating up coming into this favorable matchup, his home run props are a strong play at over +300 on Saturday night.
Carson Benge to Hit a Home Run (+515)
The White Sox are hosting Benge and the Mets this Saturday, and it will be another important start for trade deadline acquisition Luis Castillo. Castillo has made three starts for Chicago, allowing nine runs in 9 1/3 road innings against the Red Sox and Cubs but looking sharp with seven shutout innings at home against the Reds. He’ll be at home for this start against the Mets but he may not be able to duplicate his success against Cincinnati.
On the season, Castillo has allowed 19 homers in 23 games (115 1/3 innings), and lefties have hit 14 of those 19 homers with a .361 wOBA and an 11.9% barrel rate.
Benge is one of the Mets’ best lefties and has put together a strong rookie season. He is up to 15 homers on the year, including four in his last 15 games. In that 15-game stretch, he’s hitting .328 (19-for-58) with a .415 wOBA, a 42.6% hard-hit rate and a .967 OPS. Benge’s most recent blast was on Wednesday against the Padres.
Since Castillo has been so shaky against lefties and Benge has been showing off some pop, he’s a great value at over 5:1. The forecast for Chicago is for the wind to be blowing out to right field at about 11 mph, which could help create a favorable homer environment at Rate Field for Benge and the other batters in this matchup.
Nathaniel Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+409)
Lowe and the Guardians smashed the Rockies 9-1 in their series opener at Coors Field, and Lowe went 2-for-4 with a double and three runs scored. Since joining the Guardians at the trade deadline, the lefty is 12-for-45 (.267) with two homers and a .332 wOBA. He has seven hits in his last six games, with four of those going for extra bases, including this blast from last Friday:
Lowe has hit all 14 homers against righties this season, batting .289 with a .381 wOBA and 9.7% barrel rate on that side of his splits. He homered at Coors Field earlier this season when he was with the Reds, and he has a strong chance to take Gabriel Hughes or a member of the Rockies’ bullpen out of the yard on Saturday.
Hughes has allowed only three homers in his 37 2/3 innings this season, but two of those were hit by lefties, who have a .337 wOBA against him. Even though Hughes hasn’t been smashable, the elevation of Coors Field is enough to make Lowe’s home run props a good play at this price over +400.
