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Prediction, pick for Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze at UFC Sacramento

Prediction, pick for Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze at UFC Sacramento

Published:

By: Cooper Albers

Ex-middleweights are bulking up to 205 pounds on Saturday night, as Reinier de Ridder faces Roman Dolidze in a light heavyweight clash at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues in Sacramento.

De Ridder (21–4, 4–2 UFC) makes his light heavyweight debut in the promotion following back-to-back defeats, punctuated by a lopsided decision loss to Caio Borralho in March. Dolidze (15–5, 9–5 UFC) returns to 205 pounds after two straight defeats of his own, capped by a unanimous decision loss against Christian Leroy Duncan that same month.

De Ridder enters as a heavy -380 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Dolidze is a +300 underdog, with the fight total set at O/U 2.5 rounds.

De Ridder vs. Dolidze Preview

Reinier de Ridder

  • 21–4 (4–2 UFC)
  • 5–3 (T)KO
  • 13–0 SUB

Reinier de Ridder made a few massive changes ahead of his next fight. Not only is he making his light heavyweight debut following grueling weight cuts and consecutive losses, but the Dutch southpaw also left Kill Cliff FC for American Top Team. 

But the shakeup likely won’t be as drastic as you’d expect. Despite coming off back-to-back defeats, “RDR,” 35, previously captured 205-pound gold in ONE Championship. In the years since, he padded his resume with victories over the likes of Robert Whittaker and Bo Nickal. He now returns to the division, looking to impose his dangerous ground game at his natural weight.

Roman Dolidze

  • 15–5 (9–5 UFC)
  • 8–0 (T)KO
  • 3–1 SUB

Roman Dolidze will also be returning to light heavyweight after dropping his last two bouts at 185 pounds. Despite a 3–0 record in the heavier division, the Georgian veteran has competed at middleweight for over two years. And at 38, he’s certainly shown signs of decline in that time. 

Dolidze has been on an uninspiring run of form for some time now, dropping four of his last seven bouts since 2022. His most meaningful win during that stretch came against Kevin Holland, who got stopped by de Ridder a few months later. Dolidze is pretty slow on the feet and, while still a takedown threat, doesn’t do much with his grappling. He’s arguably vulnerable on the ground when facing grapplers who force the action, entering Saturday with a paltry 32 percent takedown defense and a recent submission loss against Anthony Hernandez.

De Ridder vs. Dolidze Pick, Best Bet

The adjustments Reinier de Ridder made ahead of Saturday night should bear fruit. He returns to his natural weight facing another former 185-pounder in Roman Dolidze — a smooth transition against a less-than-formidable opponent. “RDR” holds height, reach, and age advantages, along with a serious edge on the ground. The crafty veteran should lean on his grappling early and leave Sacramento with his 14th career win by submission.

Best Bet: Reinier de Ridder by Submission (+240)

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