There are 10 MLB games taking place across tonight’s Monday slate. In a National League East battle, the New York Mets will open up a series with the Atlanta Braves. It has been a very different season for this pair of hopeful contenders, as the Braves enter the matchup in the top spot in the division while the Mets bring up the rear, with 19.5 games separating them.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Braves enter as -142 favorites to win outright and hold +139 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mets hold +132 odds of getting the win, and the run total is set at 8.5.
Mets at Braves prediction, preview
The New York Mets enter with a 52-67 record on the season, slotting them in last place in the NL East and the sixth-worst record in the MLB. New York has shown some life lately, coming off an 11-1 win over the Pirates in the previous game. It has also won five of its past six games, including a sweep over the Cleveland Guardians. On the season overall, the Mets have gone 56-63 to the run line, and the run total is 53-56-10 to the over/under.
Christian Scott will take the mound for New York, marking his 17th start of the season. He enters with a 3-3 record, a 3.15 ERA, a 1.265 WHIP, seven home runs allowed and 92 strikeouts tallied across 74.1 innings pitched. Scott has faced this Braves team in 56 at-bats this season, limiting them to slash lines of .179/.258/.304 with 10 hits and 21 strikeouts across 56 at-bats.
The Mets’ offense is posting collective slash lines of .235/.306/.387 with a .694 OPS. New York ranks 22nd in the MLB in hits, 22nd in runs, 12th in home runs and 12th in strikeouts. Juan Soto headlines the production with 21 home runs, 52 RBIs and a National League-leading .947 OPS, but he remains on the IL with a calf injury. Bo Bichette has settled in, leading the team with 124 hits, 11 home runs and 59 RBIs, while Carson Benge adds 116 hits, 13 home runs and 47 RBIs. Francisco Alvarez, Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien have each also notched 10+ home runs on the season.
The Atlanta Braves lead the NL East with a 71-47 record on the season. This marks the third-best record in all of baseball. Atlanta dropped two of three games against the Yankees in its previous series, but it has won nine of its past 11. On the season, the Braves have gone 64-54 to the run line, and the run total is 55-57-6 to the over/under.
Bryce Elder will get the start for the Braves tonight, marking his 23rd of the season. The 27-year-old enters with an 8-6 record, a 3.69 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP, allowing 19 home runs and tallying 104 strikeouts across 126.2 innings pitched. He enters coming off three consecutive starts with just one earned run allowed while totaling 18 innings across this stretch. Elder has faced off with this Mets team in 56 at-bats in his career, allowing slash lines of .339/.383/.625 with a 1.008 OPS. He has allowed 19 hits, four home runs and tallied just seven strikeouts in these opportunities.
At the plate, the Braves are slashing a collective .249/.313/.419 with a .732 OPS. Atlanta ranks ninth in the league in hits, sixth in total runs, fourth in home runs and 23rd in strikeouts. Michael Harris II leads the team with 124 hits, 20 home runs and 67 RBIs. Matt Olson adds 122 hits, an MLB-leading 29 doubles, and he leads the Braves with 34 home runs and 72 RBIs. Ozzie Albies, Mauricio Dubon and Drake Baldwin have each eclipsed 100+ hits on the season, while Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna Jr. also play key roles.
Mets at Braves pick, best bet
It has been nice to see some signs of life from the Mets as of late. While they dug themselves a hole that is too deep to overcome on the season, New York is playing quality baseball and arrives with some momentum coming into tonight.
Bryce Elder is in the midst of a stellar season and has been a major reason for the Braves’ success this year. However, he has struggled against this Mets team across his career, with an OPS above 1.000+ allowed and 13 runs conceded in just 56 at-bats. This includes one matchup this season, as Elder took the mound against the Mets on June 14th. New York tagged the right-hander for 10 hits, six earned runs and two home runs, chasing him from the matchup after four innings of work. The Mets produced an 8-1 victory in this matchup.
Christian Scott has also faced off against this Braves lineup once this season. He took the mound against Atlanta less than two weeks ago and threw six innings, allowing one earned run and five total hits. He also has had much more success against this Braves lineup in his career, limiting it to just 10 hits and 21 strikeouts in 56 at-bats.
While the Braves have earned their spot at the top of the NL East and should rightfully be viewed as the better overall team, this is a matchup that favors the Mets. New York is 6-4 against Atlanta on the season, and expect it to have success against Bryce Elder again. The right-handed pitcher deserves credit for having a great year, but he posted an ERA of 5.30+ in back-to-back seasons before this. The Mets have a better offense than they have largely played to on the season, and they have shown some encouraging flashes of late. Expect them to punish Elder on the mound tonight and pull off the upset to win the sixth matchup of their past seven games.
Best bet: New York Mets Moneyline (+132)
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