Tonight, two Western Conference hopefuls are set to square off in Houston. The Rockets are coming off back-to-back losses as they host the Nuggets at Toyota Center, with the visitors gaining momentum after back-to-back wins.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Monday’s Nuggets vs. Rockets matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nuggets vs. Rockets prediction, preview
Denver hasn’t looked great most nights despite a 5-3 record, and there are genuine concerns that perhaps three-time MVP Nikola Jokic may be on the decline at age 31. However, it’s still early in the campaign and David Adelman’s team last year – which looked much like this one in terms of the core – won over 50 games. There’s a lot of basketball to be played, so ranking 17th in NETRTG at +2.2 isn’t an indicator that there’s reason to panic. Yes, Jokic’s numbers are down to 22.9 points, 10.1 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game, and he’s shooting only 22.9% from deep. Still, he’s leading the league in dimes at the moment and costar Jamal Murray has picked up the slack with 24.3 points and 6.1 assists per game, also hitting a blazing 49.2% of his own threes. Five other players average double-digit points and the team averages 115.2 PPG as a unit, sitting seventh in OFFRTG. The Nuggets are also third in FG% at 48.5% and 11th in 3P% at 36.0%, so efficiency isn’t an issue by any means. However, the drop to 20th in rebounding with only 42.8 per game is a slight problem, and of course, defense remains a weakness – they’re giving up 113.1 PPG but are 20th in DEFRTG.
On the injury report, all of Jokic, Murray, Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, DeMar Deozan and Christian Braun are probable due to various ailments. Julian Strawther is the only name listed as out.
The Rockets were off to a hot start, and they still are at 7-3. They’re coming off losses to the Timberwolves and Suns, though, the latter of which really hurt given the state of that team. Still, there’s a lot to like about this Houston roster that ranks fourth in NETRTG at +9.3. Alperen Sengun is playing quite well with 21.5 points, 8.8 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game, leading his team across all three categories. Kevin Durant’s volume has taken a dip, but he’s providing a steady 20.8 PPG, scoring just as expected. Amen Thompson gets plenty of shine as a third star with 15.6 points and 6.5 rebounds to go with elite defense, but Jabari Smith Jr. has also taken a step forward with 17.3 PPG and a 47.5% 3P%. With two other double-digit scorers, the Rockets average 116.0 PPG and are fourth in OFFRTG – efficiency of the fourth-best FG% (47.9%) and seventh-best 3P% (37.6%) helps. The defense also remains strong under Ime Udoka. They’re allowing only 107.0 PPG and are ninth in DEFRTG, though they’re just 14th in rebounding with 44.0 boards a night.
The injury report is largely clean for Houston, with Steven Adams and Clint Capela both out at the center position.
Nuggets vs. Rockets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as a 4.5-point favorite at home tonight with -173 odds on the Moneyline. The Nuggets are a +146 underdog to win outright on the road with the total set at 223.5 combined points.
This feels like a matchup in which the over should handily cash. Houston and Denver are 26th and 27th in pace, respectively, but both offenses are very efficient and have been knocking down shots with ease for the most part. They average 231.2 PPG combined, and between Jokic and Sengun, there isn’t a standout rim protector or true paint defender on either side of the matchup – especially the Rockets, who are without both of their traditional big men behind their stud. It may not go way over given the pace of play, but there’s enough star power and supporting talent for this over to earn top billing if you’re betting this game.
