The MLB’s trade deadline came and went yesterday, letting contenders load up while other teams sold. There was no more prolific seller than the Detroit Tigers, who shipped out perhaps the best pitcher in the sport to kick off the blockbusters. The Seattle Mariners, meanwhile, were fairly quiet as they acquired a new outfielder and simplified the pitching rotation by dealing a starter.
On Tuesday night, these teams square off at T-Mobile Park with first pitch set for 9:40 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Tigers vs. Mariners game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tigers vs. Mariners prediction, preview
Despite looking good for much of the last month, the Tigers capitalized on the moment and dealt multi-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal away, though not for the haul he certainly is worthy of. They’re 54-58 with a +63 run differential, so now the focus is on trying to maintain a shot at the Wild Card with just 2.5 games separating them from a berth as things stand. As for the Mariners, they’ve underwhelmed at 55-58 with a +3 differential, but they did send out Luis Castillo while adding Taylor Ward to the outfield. They’re hoping to find some of the second-half mojo that sent them to the playoffs last year.
Tonight, Detroit starts RHP Troy Melton (6-1). The young starter boasts a miniscule 1.75 ERA in his 11 starts and 67.0 IP with an 0.93 WHIP and 60 strikeouts as well. The bullpen that backs him has the 10th-best ERA at 3.83 alongside a 1.32 WHIP and a 12.4% K-BB%.
Meanwhile, Seattle sends RHP Emerson Hancock (6-5) to the bump with 110.1 IP under his belt this year. He’s amassed a 3.26 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, also striking out 102 batters in this span. The Mariners’ bullpen maintains a 3.63 ERA that sits fifth among all clubs, plus a 1.29 WHIP and a 14.3% K-BB%.
Quietly, the Tigers’ hitters have risen the ranks to 11th in OPS on the year at .727. They bring a .167 ISO that slots in at eighth best and 138 home runs, 11th most – against right-handers, they slash .246/.317/.422 with a .739 OPS, the better of their splits. The Mariners are also better against righties with a .235/.314/.392 slash line and a .705 OPS, but that’s certainly less inspiring production. The club’s overall OPS is just .689 and falls 26th, while the .148 ISO is 22nd and the 132 home runs are 14th most.
Tigers vs. Mariners pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Mariners as a -118 Moneyline favorite at their home ballpark, while the Tigers enter as +111 underdogs to win on the road tonight. The run total is set at an even eight.
Despite Hancock’s excellent campaign and the prowess of Seattle’s bullpen, it’s surprising that Detroit is a plus-money dog. Melton’s production is fantastic, particularly from a second-year pro – with a 3.26 xERA and a .220 xBA, this isn’t even extreme overperformance either. It turns out the sophomore may just be good, and against a lineup that struggles to turn in consistent efforts, he and this Tigers pen may bet the better of the home team tonight. Melton’s ERA over the course of 29.1 innings in July was an absurd 0.92 as he gave up just three earned runs in that span, also conceding only 18 hits while striking out 35 hitters.
In short, Detroit’s young starter is extremely hot at the moment and should continue this scorching run of form in the late slate. Assuming Melton gets just a little bit of run support from his offense, which itself is on the positive side of its splits, taking him to record a win at +170 or going with an outright Tigers W at +111 feels like a prudent play.
