The MLB’s trade deadline came and went yesterday, letting contenders load up while other teams sold. Both the Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers made some moves, and tonight, they have the chance to square off in a heated NL Central rivalry. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET at American Family Field.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Pirates vs. Brewers game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Brewers prediction, preview
The Pirates got back to .500 and are 57-57 on the year with a +31 run differential, but life is difficult in a talented division and fairly stacked NL to begin with. They did make some moves yesterday primarily to bolster the bullpen, but whether those additions pay off will prove key in deciding whether the club can sneak into the postseason. The Brewers are 69-43 with the best winning percentage in baseball and a +134 run differential, but they also failed to capitalize on a true high-end move to keep up with the Dodgers’ acquisition of Tarik Skubal. Instead, Milwaukee added Dustin May and JoJo Romero as primary names.
Let’s hone in on tonight’s game, now. Pittsburgh starts RHP Jared Jones (2-2), who has a 3.81 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across 52.0 IP in 11 starts. He’s also struck out 58 batters, giving him a nice 27.9% K% alongside a 7.2% BB%. To this point, the club’s bullpen ranks 20th in ERA at 4.31 with a 1.40 WHIP, though a 13.0% K-BB% is quite solid.
Milwaukee sends out young RHP Logan Henderson (5-1). In nine starts this season totaling 44.0 IP, he carries a 2.66 ERA and 0.91 WHIP to match 54 punchouts. His K% sits at an elite 32.0% while his BB% is equally excellent at 5.3%. Furthermore, the Brewers’ relievers have the fourth-best ERA of any club at 3.58, plus a 1.27 WHIP and a 14.3% K-BB%.
Both offenses have elite upside, too. The Pirates 5.11 runs per game are the fourth most of any club and a .749 OPS also falls fourth in the MLB as a whole. Coupled with a .156 ISO and 139 homers, this unit has been highly productive – and they’re on the plus side of their splits against a right-hander with a staggering .263/.345/.429 slash line in such matchups. The Brewers are also one of the MLB’s best lineups, averaging 4.98 runs per game and slotting in at seventh in OPS thanks to a .734 tally. They don’t bring the same pop to the plate with a .144 ISO and 101 homers, fewer than any other club. However, top-tier plate process keeps runners on the basepaths with an MLB-best 0.51 BB/K ratio. Against right-handers, the Brew Crew slash .259/.341/.312 for a .753 OPS, too.
Pirates vs. Brewers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook sets the Brewers as a -141 Moneyline favorite at home, while the Pirates enter as +132 underdogs to win outright on the road. The run total sits at a low seven this evening.
Both of these starting arms have turned in quality campaigns, but the quality of the offenses on deck may overrule their own success. The run total is low tonight given the bats on either side, especially with both on the positive side of their splits at that. Granted, Pittsburgh has been struggling since the second half began with an OPS of .644, but even then, they’re bound to find their form at some point. Henderson is a very difficult assignment, but one of these clubs could easily put up five-plus runs and significantly help this total go over – I’m looking at you, Brew Crew, against the Pirates’ bullpen.
