The MLB’s trade deadline came and went yesterday, letting contenders load up while other teams sold. The Atlanta Braves are vying for an NL pennant, but after failing to seriously load up with more talent, there are questions about their status as true contenders. Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins flipped a key piece of the lineup to look towards the future despite sitting just outside of the Wild Card picture. Tonight, these NL East foes square off at Truist Park at 7:15 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Marlins vs. Braves game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Marlins vs. Braves prediction, preview
Miami’s strategy at the trade deadline was certainly something. The club’s headlining move was to flip Liam Hicks – who ranks second among its hitters in OPS this season and is under team control through 2030 – for a prospects package. For a team certainly still in the postseason picture at 58-55 with a +13 run differential after snapping a horrendous cold stretch, it was a bit of a baffling move. Now, Atlanta is the better team this year at 67-45 with a +108 differential of its own, and the group remains atop the NL East by a 7.5-game margin at that. After winning five straight outings, the momentum has flipped back in the Braves’ favor recently. However, they didn’t make a move that appears to put them over the top, failing to add a significant piece despite several depth-oriented trades.
Looking at this evening’s matchup, Miami starts RHP Ryan Gusto (0-2). He’s tossed 39 innings with a 5.31 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP and 34 strikeouts, logging a 19.4% K% with a 7.4% BB% over this span. The bullpen behind him does rank 11th in ERA at 3.86 and brings a low 1.22 WHIP with a 14.0% K-BB%, making this one of the sport’s more underrated units.
Atlanta deploys RHP Grant Holmes (6-4), who’s put forth a solid campaign in 21 games so far. He carries a 3.88 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP and 87 strikeouts, recording a 19.6% K% with a 10.2% BB%. The Braves’ relievers are some of the best in the sport, racking up a 3.42 ERA that sits third among all clubs with a 1.17 WHIP and a 15.1% K-BB%.
In terms of overall OPS, these lineups are quite similar – the Braves rank eighth at .733 while the Marlins are 10th at .732, however, they get there in different ways as the former is geared more towards slugging and the latter is better at getting on base. Atlanta’s .169 ISO falls sixth and its 150 homers are good for fourth most; Miami brings a respectable .157 ISO that ranks 14th but are 22nd in home runs with 118. That’s a big difference, and it’s enough to get the Braves to an average of 4.90 runs per game while the Marlins produce 4.39.
Marlins vs. Braves pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook sets the Braves as a -140 Moneyline favorite at home, while the Marlins enter as +132 underdogs to win outright on the road. The run total sits at an even nine this evening.
Both lineups are better against right-handed pitching with an OPS of .741 for Miami and a .749 mark for Atlanta, so the splits bode well for them this evening in that regard. For what it’s worth, Gusto doesn’t work far into games and usually caps out at around four innings, if that, and he’s been effective with one or fewer earned runs allowed in four of his last six appearances. However, he does have a hard-hit rate in the eighth percentile among all MLB pitchers and an average exit velocity of 89.9 mph that comes in at the 25th percentile. Against a Braves group that can smack the cover off of the ball, that may prove problematic. In 26 at-bats against their hitters, he’s allowed seven hits for one double and a pair of homers, a .538 slugging percentage.
You may ask why that matters so much in a small sample. Well, the Braves are second in ISO since the All-Star break with a staggering .201 mark through 636 plate appearances, producing a .466 slugging percentage in this span. Against right-handers on the year, those same numbers sit seventh (.174) and sixth (.428). Given their ability to drive the baseball and an advantageous matchup, I like Atlanta for over 2.5 runs through the first five innings at -115 odds tonight.
