A pivotal National League showdown will take place tonight at Truist Park. The Padres (49-51) are in dire straits, needing a handful of victories before August 3rd’s trade deadline. If San Diego wants to compete for a playoff spot, the time is now to start racking up wins. As for the Braves (58-41), they’ve held control of first place in the NL East all season. Still, the Phillies are just 3.0 games back of Atlanta for the division lead.
The Braves are -147 favorites, with the over/under set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between San Diego and Atlanta on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Braves pick, best bet today
- Braves -1.5 (+139): Buehler isn’t someone who can be trusted, especially against a deep Braves lineup. In comparison, Lopez’s stuff should keep a dismal Padres offense at bay. Even if Atlanta’s starter struggles, an elite bullpen is more than capable of eating some innings.
Padres vs. Braves prediction, preview
Toeing the slab for the visitors tonight will be Walker Buehler. At this point, the ninth-year pro is far removed from making All-Star Game appearances with the Dodgers. Through 89.0 innings pitched this season (19 starts), he’s accounted for a 5.36 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 81 strikeouts (8.2 K/9). The veteran has been awful recently, posting a nightmarish 16.36 ERA during his previous three outings. During that time, he’s surrendered six home runs. Most troubling, Buehler is giving up 9.4 hits per nine innings.
Add it all up, and there isn’t much reason to trust Buehler heading into Tuesday’s matchup. That’s especially true when facing one of baseball’s most dangerous lineups. The Braves are sixth in runs scored (492), fifth in home runs (132) and tenth in OPS (.734). Unfortunately, former NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring) remains on the injured list. Still, there’s more than enough talent on this squad in his absence. Atlanta has scored 55 runs over its last ten games, fourth-most in the majors during that stretch.
On the other side, Reynaldo Lopez will take the mound for the tenth time this season. Splitting time between the rotation and bullpen, the right-hander has been solid. Over 61.2 innings (nine starts), he’s produced a 3.50 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 54 strikeouts (7.9 K/9). The Dominican has allowed one run or fewer in five of his previous six appearances. To boot, he’s been terrific when pitching at home (3.00 ERA). There’s a chance that the Braves only let Lopez face San Diego’s lineup twice. That’s due primarily to an Atlanta bullpen that paces the National League with a 3.11 ERA.
Despite rostering several proven talents, San Diego’s lineup has been an absolute mess. The Padres are 28th in runs scored (407), 22nd in home runs (108) and 29th in OPS (.683). In addition, they’ve accounted for the league’s third-worst OPS against right-handed pitching (.683). Manny Machado (95 wRC+), Xander Bogaerts (84 wRC+) and Jackson Merrill (76 wRC+) have all been disappointments so far. Lopez doesn’t do anything fancy, throwing a four-seam fastball and slider on 85% of his pitches. Against those two offerings, Padres hitters are only batting .230 this season.
Best Bet: Braves -1.5 (+139)
The only area where the Padres can match Atlanta tonight is out of the bullpen. In terms of starting pitching and offense, the advantage in this one is decisively towards the Braves. Buehler’s struggles alone are enough reason to back the home team tonight. Expect a comfortable win for the favorites on Tuesday evening.
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