The second half of the MLB season is about learning from the lessons of the first half and building on the momentum. Just over two months from now, the playoff field will be set, so for teams on the bubble, there’s little margin for error.
For instance, if they want to make the playoffs, the St. Louis Cardinals can’t afford to drop games like tonight’s, a 10:10 p.m. ET contest against the American League bottom-feeding Los Angeles Angels. These games are meaningless for the Angels, who were effectively eliminated from postseason contention long ago, but for the Cardinals, who hold the National League’s final Wild Card spot on a tiebreaker over the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins, every game is a must-win.
For tonight’s series opener, St. Louis will start Kyle Leahy, while Los Angeles will turn to José Soriano.
Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels Best Bets
- Los Angeles Angels Moneyline (-112): Basic stats suggest that Leahy and Soriano are roughly equivalent pitchers, and based on recent form, Leahy is better. However, Statcast far favors Soriano, and the gap is too large to overlook.
- Over 9 (-106): Leahy could be due for a blow-up, and the Angels’ ability to find the barrel could be an issue, given his 10th-percentile barrel rate. Soriano has also been in poor form, pitching to a 5.15 ERA across his last 14 starts.
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels prediction, preview
Besides a brief losing streak right before the All-Star break to drop back to four games over .500, the Cardinals have been pretty good all season, as they’ve never dropped below .500. In fact, St. Louis could still have plenty of room to improve, as it’s won despite having 10th-worst offense this season. Among the Cardinals’ hitters, only Home Run Derby champion Jordan Walker and rookie JJ Wetherholt have had great seasons, as Victor Scott II and Nolan Gorman are both below the Mendoza Line. Additionally, St. Louis’ bullpen has been baseball’s 11th-worst, as it hasn’t enjoyed a lot of depth beyond All-Star closer Riley O’Brien, the NL leader in saves. The Cardinals have mostly won through their 10th-ranked rotation, as Michael McGreevy and Leahy have both enjoyed breakout seasons, and each of their starters has made at least 18 starts.
Meanwhile, the Angels’ 10-year postseason drought looks all but certain to extend to 11. Los Angeles was briefly over .500, climbing to 11-10 on April 17, but since then, it has gone a pitiful 28-51, including a pitiful 2-12 stretch surrounding the All-Star break. Despite Mike Trout’s solid season, the Angels have been poor offensively, ranking eighth-to-last in OPS, as Jo Adell has completely fallen off after his 37-homer 2025 campaign and Logan O’Hoppe has been the worst qualified offensive catcher in baseball. Additionally, Los Angeles’ pitching has been expectedly bad: it has had the sixth-worst rotation and the seventh-worst bullpen, and while Soriano and Walbert Ureña have been solid, basically every member of its bullpen has struggled besides Chase Silseth, José Fermin, and Samy Natera.
On the surface, Leahy has been a more-than-capable fifth starter, recording a 3.73 ERA, and he’s been even better as of late, giving up just one total earned run across his last four starts (19.1 innings). He’s also allowed two or fewer earned runs in a slight majority of his starts. However, his advanced profile isn’t so positive; he ranks in just the 12th percentile in expected ERA and the 11th percentile in expected batting average. In particular, Leahy has struggled to limit hard hits, as he sports a first-percentile average exit velocity, a second-percentile hard-hit rate, and a 10th-percentile barrel rate, and the Angels actually rank ninth in barrel rate despite their mediocre offense overall. Additionally, while Leahy has been above-average at producing ground balls, Los Angeles has been pretty good at getting the ball up. The splits are mixed; Leahy has an ERA nearly two runs higher in his eight road starts, but the Angels’ offense has been much more impotent at home.
Soriano should have the edge in the starting pitching matchup. Despite declining from the heights that he posted at the beginning of the season, when he received some early Cy Young Award buzz, his ERA is a solid 3.49 (though he’s pitched to a 5.15 mark in his last 14 appearances). His advanced profile suggests that he has many more strengths than Leahy, as he has a 90th-percentile whiff rate and a 90th-percentile ground ball rate. In particular, his ability to induce misses should help him against St. Louis, which relies on its excellent contact skills. He’s also done a relatively good job limiting major damage, ranking in the 61st percentile in average exit velocity, which could be an asset against a Cardinals team that has produced the seventh-highest average exit velocity this season, and his 18th-percentile walk rate might not be much of an issue, since St. Louis doesn’t earn many free passes. I expect him to produce at least five innings and give up three or fewer earned runs, even though he’s been worse at home and the Cardinals better on the road.
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Angels Moneyline (-112)
St. Louis lost a high-scoring affair against a fellow Wild Card contender in the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday in which it had to tax one of its most reliable relievers, Gordon Graceffo. Despite his recent form, it’s hard to fully overlook Leahy’s awful advanced numbers.
Strong Lean: Over 9 (-106)
If Leahy is indeed due for a blow-up as the Statcast numbers suggest, this could hit comfortably, especially since neither team’s bullpen is capable of limiting much damage. Additionally, it’s not like Soriano has been that good as of late, and the splits are against him.
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