The All-Star break is over, and baseball’s biggest bats are finally beginning to look refreshed. The season has entered one of July’s final weeks, when rested lineups return to routine and offensive rhythm starts rebuilding across the league.
Monday’s 2+ total bases board combines several established stars with favorable prices, warm conditions, and attackable pitch mixes. Each selection offers at least two credible paths to cash, whether through one extra-base hit or a multi-hit game. Recent form provides the starting point, while contact quality, opposing arsenals, lineup position, and park conditions separate the strongest five plays.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Best MLB player prop bets today
| Player prop pick | Odds | Why I like it |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki 2+ total bases | +115 | Suzuki’s .423/.516/.692 last-seven surge, 11 hits, five walks, 89.2 mph EV, 41.1% hard-hit rate, 9.4% barrels, and .334 xwOBA meet Flaherty’s .321 xwOBA, 90.7 mph EV, 47.3% hard contact, and 21.2-degree launch profile at wind-aided Wrigley, while his .410/.412/.384 wOBAs against four-seamers, sinkers, and sliders create multiple routes to 2+ total bases. |
| Manny Machado 2+ total bases | +130 | At +130, Machado’s 19 HR, 56 RBI, .321 xwOBA, 90.1 mph EV, 43% hard-hit rate, and 10.2% barrels gain value against Elder’s 4.12 ERA, 19.8% strikeout rate, 39.8% hard contact, and 57% air-ball share, particularly because Machado owns a .413 xwOBA with 56.3% hard contact against four-seamers and a .354 xwOBA against sinkers. |
| Riley Greene 2+ total bases | -115 | Taillon has surrendered a 5.19 ERA, .519 xSLG, and 14.3% barrel rate before facing Greene’s .286 AVG, .846 OPS, .364 xwOBA, 91.5 mph EV, 50.2% hard-hit rate, and 14.3% barrels, with Greene carrying .420/.423/.358 xwOBAs against sinkers, sweepers, and four-seamers into 83-degree Wrigley weather and a 16-mph wind blowing out. |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. 2+ total bases | -110 | Tatis has hit .282 with two HR, seven RBI, and eight runs across his last 10 games, supplementing a .354 xwOBA, 92.1 mph EV, 53.5% hard-hit rate, and 11.2% barrels before attacking Elder’s 19.8% strikeout profile through .375 and .394 xwOBAs against four-seamers and sinkers, a .475 SLG against sliders, and Atlanta’s 89-degree hitting conditions. |
| Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases | -130 | Junk’s 4.57 ERA, 17.4% strikeout rate, .309 xwOBA allowed, and 41.1% hard contact offer no convincing answer for Alvarez’s .319/.429/.633 line, 31 HR, 20 doubles, 1.062 OPS, .472 xwOBA, 94.5 mph EV, 52.9% hard-hit rate, and 18.5% barrels, especially with Alvarez producing .476 xwOBAs against both four-seamers and sinkers, .408 against changeups, .424 against sliders, and .571 against curves. |
In-depth analysis below.
Prop bet analysis
Seiya Suzuki 2+ total bases (+115)
Seiya Suzuki enters Monday as the strongest price-adjusted option at +112. Suzuki has hit .423/.516/.692 across his last seven games, collecting 11 hits, five walks, and only five strikeouts. His 15-game line sits at .322/.388/.576 with three homers and 11 RBI. That production has included line-drive contact, extra-base damage, and enough plate discipline to maintain strong scoring opportunities. Suzuki owns an 89.2-mph average exit velocity, 41.1% hard-hit rate, 9.4% barrel rate, and .334 xwOBA.
Jack Flaherty has pitched better recently, but his season-long contact profile remains vulnerable. Flaherty has allowed a .321 xwOBA, 90.7-mph average exit velocity, 47.3% hard contact, and an 8.4% barrel rate. His average launch angle allowed sits at 21.2 degrees. Suzuki handles the pitches Flaherty must bring into the zone. He owns a .410 wOBA against four-seamers, .412 against sinkers, and .384 against sliders. His expected marks remain .348, .407, and .342 against those offerings.
Wrigley adds 83-degree temperatures and a 16-mph wind blowing out. Suzuki can clear this prop with one driven ball or two singles. The plus-money price requires a 47.2% cash rate, making Suzuki the card’s strongest value.
Manny Machado 2+ total bases (+130)
Manny Machado’s +130 price creates the case. That number implies a 42.9% probability, leaving room for his uneven season-long results. Machado is batting .198 with 19 homers, 56 RBI, and a .697 OPS. His expected contact remains considerably stronger than the batting average. Machado owns a .321 xwOBA, 90.1-mph average exit velocity, 43.0% hard-hit rate, and 10.2% barrel rate. His 19 homers also show that the diminished average has not erased his impact contact.
Bryce Elder has limited barrels, but he has not consistently dominated hitters. Elder carries a 4.12 ERA, 3.82 xERA, .303 xwOBA allowed, and a 19.8% strikeout rate. His 39.8% hard-hit rate and 57% air-ball share create enough extra-base opportunity in Atlanta’s heat. Machado’s clearest advantage comes against Elder’s four-seamer. He owns a .417 wOBA, .413 xwOBA, .616 slugging percentage, and 56.3% hard-hit rate against four-seamers.
Machado’s sinker results have lagged, but the underlying contact remains strong. He has generated a .354 xwOBA and 53.8% hard-hit rate against sinkers. Atlanta projects near 89 degrees with light wind blowing out. Machado offers both a multi-hit path and one-swing extra-base power. At +130, the market asks too little from an elite hitter with 19-homer power and favorable fastball data.
Riley Greene 2+ total bases (-115)
Riley Greene offers the strongest underlying contact profile on the card. Greene is batting .286 with 14 homers, 47 RBI, and an .846 OPS. He owns a .369 wOBA and .364 xwOBA, supported by a 91.5-mph average exit velocity. His 50.2% hard-hit rate, 14.3% barrel rate, 38.0% sweet-spot rate, and 75.7-mph bat speed all support extra-base production. Greene has also hit .281 with two homers and seven RBI across his last 10 games. He homered Sunday before entering Wrigley’s premier hitting environment.
Jameson Taillon has allowed a 5.19 ERA, .357 xwOBA, .519 expected slugging percentage, and 14.3% barrels. His strikeout rate sits at only 20.6%, increasing Greene’s ball-in-play opportunities. The pitch mix also fits Greene particularly well. He owns a .420 xwOBA and 67.6% hard-hit rate against sinkers. His sweeper line includes a .423 xwOBA and .722 slugging percentage. Greene has also produced a .358 xwOBA against four-seamers.
Taillon’s changeup presents the clearest danger, but he cannot live exclusively with that pitch. Wrigley projects at 83 degrees with a 16-mph wind blowing out. Greene becomes the card’s best bet at plus money. He remains playable through -125 because one elevated pitch can settle the market immediately.
Fernando Tatis Jr. 2+ total bases (-110)
Fernando Tatis Jr. brings the best combination of contact authority, matchup flexibility, and multiple cashing paths. Tatis is batting .284 with seven homers, 41 RBI, and a .741 OPS. His expected production points toward stronger power results ahead. He owns a .354 xwOBA, 92.1-mph average exit velocity, 53.5% hard-hit rate, and 11.2% barrel rate. Tatis has also hit .282 with two homers, seven RBI, and eight runs across his last 10 games.
He erupted Sunday with a homer during San Diego’s 19-run performance. Tatis recorded multiple hits as the Padres repeatedly attacked Kansas City’s pitching. That game extended a recent stretch featuring harder contact and improved extra-base production.
Bryce Elder owns a 4.12 ERA, 3.82 xERA, .303 xwOBA allowed, and .385 expected slugging percentage. His 19.8% strikeout rate should give Tatis frequent contact opportunities. Tatis owns a .375 xwOBA and 62.7% hard-hit rate against four-seamers. Those figures remain .394 and 55.7% against sinkers. He has also slugged .475 against sliders, Elder’s most prominent secondary weapon.
Atlanta projects near 89 degrees with light wind blowing out. Tatis can reach two bases with one gap shot, one homer, or two singles. The +101 price properly compensates for Elder’s respectable barrel suppression
Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases (-130)
Yordan Alvarez carries the shortest price, but he also owns the safest offensive foundation. Alvarez is batting .319/.429/.633 with 31 homers, 20 doubles, 73 RBI, and a 1.062 OPS. His 94.5-mph average exit velocity and 52.9% hard-hit rate place constant pressure on opposing defenses. Alvarez also enters Monday after doubling in consecutive games. He projects second in Houston’s order, preserving four strong plate-appearance opportunities and a realistic fifth.
Janson Junk offers little swing-and-miss protection. Junk owns a 4.57 ERA, 3.99 xERA, .309 xwOBA allowed, and only a 17.4% strikeout rate. His 41.1% hard-hit rate gives Alvarez ample quality-contact access despite Junk’s modest 6.7% barrel rate.
Alvarez’s pitch coverage makes the matchup especially difficult. He owns a .476 xwOBA against both four-seamers and sinkers. His expected mark against changeups sits at .408. Alvarez has slugged .681 against four-seamers and .625 against sinkers, with hard-hit rates above 55% against both pitches. Junk lacks a secondary weapon capable of consistently steering Alvarez away from damage.
Daikin Park’s closed roof removes any weather enhancement, so the argument rests entirely on hitter quality and arsenal fit. At -13-, Alvarez needs approximately a 56.1% cash rate. That price remains fair, while -120 creates a stronger edge.
