The second half of the regular season means little for the Los Angeles Dodgers. They’re 11.5 games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West, and Shohei Ohtani seems to be cruising his way to a third consecutive NL MVP award. For the Philadelphia Phillies, though, the second half could be crucial: they’re just three games behind the Atlanta Braves atop the NL East, and Cristopher Sánchez is locked in a tight battle with Jacob Misiorowski for the NL Cy Young Award.
Sánchez will take the mound tonight as the Phillies open a three-game set against the Dodgers with a 7:10 p.m. ET clash in Philadelphia. Emmet Sheehan will oppose him for Los Angeles.
Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies Best Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies to Win by One Run (+350): Cristopher Sánchez has the clear edge in the starting pitching matchup, but the Dodgers are the better team. Los Angeles should be able to claw its way back into this one, but the magnitude of Sánchez’s edge is slightly larger than the Dodgers’.
- Emmet Sheehan O15.5 Outs Recorded (-116): The Dodgers taxed their bullpen last night by utilizing seven different pitchers, so unless Sheehan is pitching horribly, it makes sense to keep him in the game for as long as he can handle.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies prediction, preview
The Dodgers started the second half in pretty good form, taking two of three from a road series against the New York Yankees, splitting a double-header on Sunday that started with a Yoshinobu Yamamoto complete game. One four-game losing streak at the start of May and a sweep right before the All-Star break aside, Los Angeles has been basically perfect this season, as it’s on pace to finish with a 102-60 record and a plus-251 run differential. The Dodgers lead the league in OPS, as Ohtani has continued to rake and Andy Pages and Dalton Rushing have continued their rises into proper stardom. Los Angeles also has had the best rotation in baseball, as Justin Wrobleski joined Yamamoto and Ohtani as an All-Star and even Eric Lauer, acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays as a reclamation project, has a 3.12 ERA in his spot duty as a reclamation project. By comparison, the Dodgers’ seventh-ranked bullpen is their weakness, but all six of their relievers with the most innings have sub-3 ERA’s, and marquee free agency signing Edwin Díaz isn’t among them.
For the Phillies to be in this position wouldn’t have been seen as a shock at the start of the season, but they actually started 9-19, replaced Rob Thomson with Don Mattingly, and have gone 46-26 since, a better winning percentage than Los Angeles this season. Still, though, there’s some room for improvement: Philadelphia hasn’t had a great offense this season, ranking just 24th in OPS despite Kyle Schwarber’s leading all of baseball in home runs, as J.T. Realmuto, Trea Turner, Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, and Justin Crawford all have an OPS below .700. Even in the last 30 days, the Phillies’ offense has been barely above-median. Philadelphia pairs that offense with the 10th-worst bullpen, where it hasn’t had much depth beyond Jhoan Duran and Orion Kerkering, and the 11th-best rotation. Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo rival even the Dodgers’ top three, but the Phillies could use some back-end rotational help at the trade deadline.
Sánchez should be a challenge for even this Los Angeles lineup. Despite a blow-up against the Kansas City Royals on July 6 in which he gave up nine earned runs in just 3.1 innings of work, the Dominican has been tremendous, leading the league in pitching WAR for the second consecutive season and going the entire month of May without giving up a run. Advanced numbers paint a very positive picture of Sánchez; he ranks in the 81st percentile in expected ERA and in the top decile in chase rate, whiff rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate. The latter two could be especially valuable against the Dodgers, who rank among the league leaders in walks for the sixth consecutive season and hit ground balls at the third-lowest rate. The main issue is that when trouble has come for Sánchez, it’s come in droves; he ranks in just the 16th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 32nd percentile in barrel rate, and Los Angeles ranks in the top nine in both stats. Sánchez should have favorable splits; although the Dodgers have been somewhat better on the road and Citizens Bank Park is hitter-friendly overall, Sánchez has an absurd 0.86 ERA at home this season.
Sánchez should definitely have the advantage in the starting pitching matchup over Sheehan, who’s been one of Los Angeles’ worst players this season. After he broke out with a 2.82 ERA in 15 appearances (12 starts) last season, he’s taken a step back so far in 2026, pitching to a 4.81 ERA across 17 starts, but at least he ended the first half in hot form, giving up two or fewer earned runs in each of his last three starts. Advanced stats suggest he’s gotten unlucky, as he has a 56th-percentile expected ERA and a 63rd-percentile expected batting average, both far better than his actual marks. His high chase and whiff rates should help slow down Philadelphia, which employs an extremely aggressive plate approach, and his high strikeout and low walk rate should also allow him to rack up counting stats, given the boom-or-bust nature of that approach. However, like Sánchez, he’s struggled to limit big damage sometimes, ranking in just the 19th percentile in barrel rate and the 14th percentile in ground ball rate, areas in which the Phillies have been roughly league-average. Additionally, the splits aren’t in his favor, as he’s been slightly worse on the road and Philadelphia somewhat better at home.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Philadelphia Phillies to Win by 1 Run (+350)
This feels like pretty decent value for two evenly-matched teams. I expect the Phillies to jump out to an early lead behind Sánchez and the Dodgers to claw back into it against Philadelphia’s bullpen. Ultimately, though, I think Duran will close it out.
Strong Lean: Emmet Sheehan O15.5 Outs Recorded (-116)
Sheehan isn’t a particularly efficient pitcher because his high whiff rate means at-bats tend to extend, but he’ll need to pitch into the sixth inning tonight after Los Angeles used seven relievers in last night’s bullpen game…unless, of course, Yamamoto pretends it’s a World Series Game 7 and volunteers to pitch on zero days’ rest again.
More MLB Content
Read more MLB content at DraftKings Network:
- MLB Best Bets: Top home run props for Monday 7/20/26
- New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction, pick for MLB on Monday 7/20/26
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles prediction, pick for MLB on Monday 7/20/26
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres prediction, pick for MLB on Monday 7/20/26
Tail these bets and more in the DK Network MLB Dugout Betting Group here!
