Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s very full slate: Bryce Harper, Kerry Carpenter and Ozzie Albies.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | +347 | Emmet Sheehan owns a 14th percentile ground ball rate (35.0%) and a 19th percentile opponent barrel rate (9.7%). He fits the archetype of a pitcher who gives up home runs, and for his part, he’s surrendered 1.80 per nine to opposing LHBs in 2026. Harper and his 96th percentile expected wOBA (.386) should take advantage. |
| Kerry Carpenter | +264 | Carpenter’s known for his platoon abilities and all 13 long balls he’s hit this year have come against RHPs. Meanwhile, Jameson Taillon has essentially been a batting practice pitcher this season, serving up a whopping 3.38 long balls per nine to opposing left-handed bats. Add in some wind blowing out of Wrigley, and you have perfect home run conditions. |
| Ozzie Albies | +501 | From 2023 to 2025, no pitcher surrendered more long balls than JP Sears (92). The veteran then spent most of this campaign at Triple-A, where he pitched to a 7.92 ERA. Woof. Albies is hitting .321 with a 132 wRC+ against LHPs in his career. He’s in a wonderful spot. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Bryce Harper 1+ Home Run (+347)
The Phillies will square-off with Emmet Sheehan tonight. The right-hander is a hard-throwing and promising young arm for the Dodgers, but if he has one flaw, it’s his inability to consistently keep the ball in the yard. Some of it is archetype, as Sheehan owns just a 14th percentile ground ball rate (35.0%). Some of it is poor results, as Sheehan also owns a 19th percentile opponent barrel rate (9.7%). Generally, it’s left-handed bats doing the damage, too, as Sheehan has conceded 1.80 home runs per nine within the split across his 82.1 innings of work in 2026. Philadelphia has a lot of dangerous LHBs in its lineup, starting off with Kyle Schwarber (+183) and Bryce Harper at the top. The latter’s odds to go deep tonight are nearly twice as long as the former, despite a 96th percentile expected wOBA (.386). I’ll take my chances with Harper.
Kerry Carpenter 1+ Home Run (+264)
It has been an underwhelming season for Kerry Carpenter. Once a top-tier platoon bat in 2024, Carpenter’s slowly seen his metrics creep back to league average, and that’s culminated in a .298 expected wOBA and a 98 wRC+ in 2026. That said, he still has some real pop in his bat, and all 13 long balls he’s hit this year have come against RHPs. I’m also burying the lede with this pick. Carpenter’s viability has way more to do with Jameson Taillon and the wind at Wrigley. Taillon has essentially been a batting practice pitcher this season, serving up a whopping 3.38 long balls per nine to opposing left-handed bats. That’s the direct result of a first percentile opponent barrel rate (14.3%). Add in some wind gusts blowing out of the Friendly Confines, and Taillon might be in for a very difficult evening.
Ozzie Albies 1+ Home Run (+501)
I’m honestly shocked that Ozzie Albies only has one career hit off JP Sears in his 10 at-bats against the soft-tossing lefty. That’s how good Albies’ numbers consistently are versus left-handed pitching. Specific to 2026, Albies is slashing .285/.305/.473 with a .188 ISO within the split. For his entire time at the MLB level, Albies is hitting .321 with a 132 wRC+. Meanwhile, Sears has struggled to stay at the MLB level — mostly because he’s also struggled to limit the home run ball. To wit, from 2023 to 2025, no pitcher surrendered more long balls than Sears (92). The veteran then spent most of this campaign at Triple-A, where he pitched to a 7.92 ERA. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of talent.
