Kicking off Sunday’s three-game WNBA slate, the Los Angeles Sparks will take on the Dallas Wings.
This is the second of three matchups between these teams this season. They first squared off on June 5, with the Wings winning 104-96.
The Wings enter as 10.5-point home favorites with -470 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sparks are +360 underdogs, with the game total set at 181.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction and pick for this Sparks at Wings matchup.
Sparks at Wings Preview
It has been a frustrating season for the Sparks, who have dropped to 10th place in the WNBA standings with a 10-14 record. They have lost eight of their last 11 games and enter Sunday on a three-game skid. On the season, the Sparks are 10-14 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 17 of the 24 games played.
Kelsey Plum headlines the production for the Sparks, averaging 23.9 points and 6.4 assists per game. The only problem? She’s not playing. Plum is out with a lower left leg injury and will remain sidelined against the Wings. Nneka Ogwumike will be looked to to catalyze the squad on both ends and bolster her averages of 17.3 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. Dearica Hamby adds 14.6 points and 7.5 rebounds of her own, while Rae Burrell is the lone other player to average in double figures with 12.9 points per game. Ariel Atkins and Erica Wheeler also play important roles.
The Sparks are averaging 88.8 points per game, which ranks sixth in the WNBA. Los Angeles also ranks ninth in offensive rating, fifth in field-goal percentage and 11th in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring a WNBA-high 93.8 points per game against Los Angeles. The Sparks also rank 14th in defensive rating, 14th in opponent field-goal percentage and ninth in opponent three-point percentage while allowing the most perimeter shots per game.
The Dallas Wings sit in fourth place in the WNBA with a 16-8 record on the year. They’ve won seven of their last nine games and enter this matchup on a five-game surge. The Wings have gone 12-12 against the spread, and the game total is 11-13 to the over/under.
Paige Bueckers headlines the production with 20.7 points, 6.3 assists, and 4.2 rebounds per game. Jessica Sheppard also stuffs the stat sheet, contributing 15 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game. First overall pick Azzi Fudd and Arike Ogunbowale each add 13.3 points per game of their own. Maddy Siegrist, Awak Kuier, and Aziaha James also play key roles.
Jose Fernandez’s squad is scoring 89.5 points per game, which ranks fourth in the WNBA. Dallas also ranks third in offensive rating, fourth in field-goal percentage, and eighth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 85.4 points per game against the Wings, which ranks sixth in the league. Dallas also ranks sixth in defensive rating, 10th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 12th in opponent three-point percentage.
Sparks at Wings Pick, Best Bet
During the first matchup between these two teams, the Wings produced a 104-96 victory. It was an evenly fought battle in which neither team extended its lead beyond nine points. Los Angeles held a lead for 63% of the matchup, while Dallas held control for 31% of the game. Dallas covered the 2.5-point spread in this matchup.
The outlook has changed for both teams since this point. The Wings have found their form, going 9-5 since this matchup, although they are 5-9 against the spread in these games played. On the other side of things, the Sparks have failed to get their season back on track, going 6-8 since this matchup and 7-7 against the spread.
My lean is toward the 10.5-point spread being a bit too much for the Wings to cover and for the Sparks to put up a battle to keep this game competitive. However, I am backing the game total to go over 181.5 as my best bet for this matchup. The total finished at 200 points exactly in the first matchup between these team. Each side has some impressive offensive flashes and legitimate defensive concerns.
Looking at Los Angeles’ production, the Sparks rank dead last in opponents’ points allowed, giving up 93.8 points per contest. They have conceded as many as 125 points in a matchup and given up 92+ points in 14 of their 24 games played. The Sparks also rank 14th in defensive rating, give up the most three-point attempts per game, and rank 14th in opponents’ field goal percentage. Dallas provides a bit more resistance, ranking sixth in the WNBA in opponents’ points per game by giving up 85.4 points per game. But they have given up 90+ points in back-to-back games, six of the past 10, and as many as 110 points in a matchup.
These teams shot 53% and 54% from the field in the first matchup, and the Sparks play at the quickest pace in the league. Expect plenty of offense and for both teams to score at a high rate. Defense has largely looked optional in recent games for each of these teams, and expect this to especially be the case as they face off with each other. 181.5 is a high game total by WNBA standards, but they soared past it in the first game and expect more of the same in today’s matchup.
