Even the most causal baseball fan knows that the regular season is a marathon, not a sprint. No team is better proof of that adage than the Red Sox (46-48). Most assumed Boston’s season was all but finished just a month ago; injury issues, a midseason managerial change, and an irate fanbase aren’t hallmarks of a contender.
Then, something miraculous happened: the team started racking up wins. Boston comes into Friday on a nine-game winning streak, shoehorning its way into a wide-open American League playoff race. This weekend presents a major test against the division-leading Rays (56-38). Tampa Bay has plenty on the line as well, hoping to fend off the second place Yankees. Given the stakes, this matinee matchup promises to be a must-watch affair.
The Red Sox are favorites (-123) over the Rays, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Tampa Bay and Boston on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Red Sox pick, best bet today
- Rays vs. Red Sox under 8.5 runs (-110): Jax has been on a heater lately, and Boston’s bats struggle at Fenway. In comparison, Bennett has excelled during his time in the big leagues. To boot, the Rays are among baseball’s worst against left-handed pitching.
Rays vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
Friday afternoon marks the first game of a double-header. Keeping that in mind, it’s not unusual to see the Rays opt for a bullpen game during the opening matchup. However, Griffin Jax has proven he’s more than just an opener. The 31-year-old has emerged as a key piece in Tampa Bay’s rotation. Through 70.0 innings (14 starts), the right-hander has notched a 3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 71 strikeouts (9.1 K/9). He comes into this one with momentum as well. Jax has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his previous seven starts.
Although he gives up plenty of hard contact, Jax does an excellent job at getting batters to chase. That could spell trouble this evening for the Red Sox. Granted, this group has turned things around to some degree at the plate. They’ve scored the eighth-most runs in baseball (50) during their last ten games. Still, it’s fair to express some long term skepticism in regards to Boston’s offense. After all, the team is putting up an MLB-worst 3.55 runs per game when playing at home. For whatever reason, the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park haven’t brought much success in Beantown. Keep in mind, the Red Sox reeled off all nine games of their win streak on the road. To make matters worse, Boston is tied for the league’s second-worst OPS vs. righties (.675).
On the other side, Jake Bennett will get the nod this afternoon. It’ll be the ninth start in what’s turned out to be a solid rookie campaign. During 47.2 innings pitched, he’s accounted for a 2.64 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 35 strikeouts (6.6 K/9). The 25-year-old doesn’t have wipeout stuff, instead relying on weak contact and superior command. Bennett has a minuscule 1.5 BB/9 ratio so far, a promising sign for any inexperienced arm. He’s been slightly worse when pitching at Fenway (3.27 ERA), but that’s to be expected; the park has always been more favorable to right-handers.
Fortunately for Boston, this Rays offense is far from a sure thing. Junior Caminero was hit on the hand with a pitch during Tuesday’s All-Star Game; his status for Friday is questionable. Even if the slugger does play, he’s one of just four regulars in the lineup with a wRC+ above 100. To boot, this has proven to be a difficult matchup for Tampa Bay. The team has a .689 OPS against left-handed pitching, ninth-worst in the majors. This offense also works the fifth-most walks per game on the road (3.70). Those free passes may not come so easy against an accurate hurler such as Bennett.
Best Bet: Rays vs. Red Sox under 8.5 runs (-110)
Bennett and Jax are unlikely standouts, but both pitchers have impressed over the past few months. The former just needs to navigate a dangerous Tampa Bay trio of hitters, which may not include Caminero. As for the latter, Boston has yet to prove they can generate consistent offense when playing at home. Factor in a lengthy All-Star break, and this has the makings of a low-scoring affair.
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