Closing down Saturday’s three-game WNBA slate, the Phoenix Mercury will visit the Las Vegas Aces.
This is the third matchup between these two teams already this season. They faced off in the season opener, with the Phoenix Mercury winning 99-66. The Aces struck back in the rematch with an 86-76 victory on June 17.
The Aces enter as 8.5-point home favorites with -380 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mercury are +300 underdogs, with the game total set at 169.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Mercury at Aces matchup.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Mercury at Aces matchup.
Mercury at Aces Preview
The Phoenix Mercury are off to an 8-15 start this season. They are coming off back-to-back losses to the Indiana Fever and Chicago Sky and have dropped seven of their last 11 games. They have gone 9-14 against the spread and 11-12 to the over/under.
Kahleah Copper headlines the production for the Mercury, averaging 20.8 points and 3.9 rebounds per game. Alyssa Thomas adds 14.6 points, 8.2 assists and 6.9 rebounds, largely setting the tone for this Phoenix team. Jovana Nogic is the lone other player to average in double figures. Monique Akoa Makani, DeWanna Bonner, and Lexi Held also play key roles. Natasha Mack will miss Saturday’s matchup with a left-foot injury, while Sami Whitcomb is questionable due to injury management for her knee problems.
The Mercury is scoring 83.7 points per game, which ranks 11th in the WNBA. They also rank 10th in offensive rating, ninth in field-goal percentage, and 10th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 85.7 points per game against Phoenix, which ranks eighth in the league. The Mercury also ranks 12th in defensive rating, 10th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 15th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Las Vegas Aces enter with a 16-6 record, a half-game back from the top seed in the WNBA. They enter this matchup coming off a victory over the Portland Fire on Thursday and have won 12 of their last 16 contests. The Aces have gone 11-11 both against the spread and toward the over/under.
Four-time MVP A’ja Wilson headlines the production, averaging 26.1 points and 9.4 rebounds per night. Jackie Young adds 16.5 points and 6.8 assists, while Chelsea Gray contributes 12.3 points and 7.3 assists of her own. Chennedy Carter and NaLyssa Smith also average double digits, while Jewell Loyd also plays a key role. Janiah Barker will miss Saturday’s game with a right leg issue, while Dana Evans and Young are questionable.
Becky Hammon’s squad is scoring 89.9 points per game, which ranks third in the W. The Aces also rank third in offensive rating, first in field-goal percentage, and fourth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 86.1 points per game against Las Vegas, which ranks ninth in the league. Las Vegas also ranks eighth in defensive rating, sixth in opponent field-goal percentage, and 11th in opponent three-point percentage.
Mercury at Aces Pick, Best Bet
The Mercury snuck a victory over the Aces in their first matchup this season in convincing fashion. Phoenix extended the lead as large as 38, leading from wire to wire. The outlook has shifted for both teams since this point, as Las Vegas has climbed back toward the top of the WNBA standings while Phoenix has faded after its respectable start.
However, the Mercury played the Aces tough in the second matchup as well. Neither team was able to extend a lead beyond 10 points. The Mercury led for 45% of the matchup, while the Aces only held control for 44% of the game before eventually securing the 86-76 win.
While there is some fair concern that this is a bad matchup for the Aces, expect the cream to rise to the top in the third game between these two teams. The Mercury has played at a respectable level beyond what their record indicates. But there is a talent gap between these two teams, and it’s difficult to find many favorable matchups for Phoenix. The Aces shot 23.8% and 21.1% from beyond the arc in the two matchups with the Mercury. But this is inconsistent with what has been seen all year: Phoenix has allowed opponents to shoot 37.2% from downtown this season, the worst rate in the league, and ranks 12th in opponent three-point attempts. The Aces also shot just 40.8% from the floor during the first loss to Phoenix, which was their third-worst shooting performance of the year.
Brush off the pair of poor performances against an inferior opponent and expect the Aces to carry themselves with increased intensity compared to the first two performances. Read into the larger sample size of data for who these teams are, especially with the Aces in formidable form. They enter this matchup having covered the spread in nine of their last 15 games with 12 wins in that span.
Expect the Mercury to have no answer for A’ja Wilson on the interior, and for this to gradually open up the opportunity for perimeter looks. Las Vegas has plenty of pathways to score with its high-powered offense, especially against a Mercury defense that has some serious flaws. Phoenix may put up a fight in the early minutes. Still, back Las Vegas to take full control and cover the 8.5-point spread in a comfortable victory on Saturday night.
