Closing down tonight’s three-game WNBA slate, the Chicago Sky will take on the Los Angeles Sparks.
Tonight will mark the first of three matchups between these two opponents. Neither side is off to their desired start to the year, as the Sparks sit in ninth place in the league with their 9-11 record while the Sky are four spots below them after their 7-14 start.
The Sparks enter as narrow 1.5-point favorites and hold -122 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sky hold +102 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 176.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Sky vs. Sparks matchup.
Sky vs. Sparks Preview
The Chicago Sky enter with a 7-14 record on the season. They are coming off a victory over the Phoenix Mercury in the previous game, but dropped back-to-back games before this and have lost 13 of their past 17 after an encouraging start to the year. On the season, Chicago has gone 10-11 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 13 of the 21 games played.
Injuries have been a factor for the Sky this season. Rickea Jackson is out for the season due to an ACL tear, Skylar Diggins will miss tonight’s matchup with a knee injury, and DiJonai Carrington is also sidelined due to a foot issue. Of the available players, Kamilla Cardoso headlines the production with 14.3 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. Sydney Taylor adds 12.4 points, while Azura Stevens is the lone other player to average in double figures at 10.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game.
The Sky are scoring 86.1 points per game, which ranks ninth in the WNBA. Chicago also ranks 11th in offensive rating, 11th in field goal percentage, and 12th in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring 88.8 points per game against the Sky, which ranks 11th in the WNBA. They also rank ninth in defensive rating, fifth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and second in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Los Angeles Sparks are off to a 9-11 start to the season. They are looking to ride the momentum of the victory over the Indiana Fever in the previous game, which snapped a three-game losing streak. Los Angeles has lost five of its last seven matchups. On the season, the Sparks have gone 7-13 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 14 of their 20 games played.
Kelsey Plum headlines the production for the Sparks, posting averages of 23.9 points and 6.4 assists per game on the season. However, Plum remains sidelined due to a lower left leg injury. Cameron Brink is the lone other player on the injury report and will miss tonight’s matchup due to a left ankle injury. Nneka Ogwumike will lead the charge and look to add to her averages of 16.5 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. Dearica Hamby adds 14.7 points and 7.8 rebounds, while Rae Burrell is the lone other player to average in double figures with 12.1 points per game.
The Sparks are scoring 88.4 points per game as a team, which ranks fifth in the WNBA. Los Angeles also ranks ninth in offensive rating, sixth in field goal percentage, and 13th in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring a WNBA-high 93.6 points per game against Los Angeles. They also rank last in defensive rating, last in opponent field goal percentage, and eighth in opponent three-point percentage while allowing the most perimeter shots per game.
Sky vs. Sparks Pick, Best Bet
Neither of these teams has exactly made the case why they deserve to be mentioned among the top class of the WNBA to this point of the season. Each has underwhelmed relative to expectations, with injury issues plaguing the Sky and defensive ineffectiveness preventing the Sparks from reaching their peak.
My lean is toward Los Angeles getting the victory and continuing their battle to get back to .500. But my best bet for this matchup is for the game total to go over 176.5. Defense has been problematic for Los Angeles all season, and Chicago is capable of exploiting this. The Sky have scored 90+ points in seven of their last nine matchups, including 99+ in three of their past five. Facing a Los Angeles defense that has conceded 92+ points in 11 matchups, ranks dead last in opponents’ points allowed, and last in defensive rating, expect the points to come easily tonight
On the other side of this matchup, scoring has not been the problem for the Sparks. They are coming off a 106-point output in the previous game and rank fifth in the league in scoring overall. The game total has gone over in 14 of their 20 games played overall, including seven of their last nine matchups played. While their defensive issues are not as pronounced, the game total has gone over in seven of the last nine Sky games and in 13 of the 21 games played overall.
The 176.5 game total is not high enough to scare me away, and expect both teams to score at a high rate in this matchup. Six of the last 10 meetings between these two teams have gone over the total, and this is the most concerning the defensive outlook has been for the two sides. This is a matchup where both teams should have no trouble scoring 90+ points, and I am backing the 176.5 line to be far too low.
