Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s full slate: Spencer Steer, Kazuma Okamoto and Manny Machado.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer | +454 | In 88 plate appearances versus LHPs, Steer is slashing .324/.437/.620 with a 181 wRC+. The 28-year-old also owns a .602 expected slugging percentage within the split, which is the eighth-highest mark in MLB among qualified hitters. If that wasn’t enough, since May 18, Shota Imanaga has surrendered a stunning 2.96 long balls per nine over a 48.2 innings span. |
| Kazuma Okamoto | +287 | JP Sears conceded 92 longs balls from 2023 to 2025 — the most of any pitcher in MLB. In 2026, he’s given up 2.35 per nine across three starts. There’s a track record here. Okamoto is tied for 11th in baseball in home runs (21), and since May 27, the RHB is slashing .269/.340/.552 with a 147 wRC+. |
| Manny Machado | +423 | I’m not quite ready to say that Shane Bieber is cooked, but the former Cy Young Award winner has not looked good since coming off the IL in mid-June. In just 13.0 innings of work, Bieber has allowed eight barrels and six home runs. Machado is mustering a .347 ISO and a .602 slugging percentage across his last 116 plate appearances. He can take advantage. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Spencer Steer 1+ Home Run (+454)
It feels like Steer’s career has been on a bit of a downward trajectory since an amazing rookie campaign in 2023. However, there’s one thing he’s been doing at an elite level in 2026 that should be getting more attention: He absolutely mashes left-handed pitching. In 88 plate appearances within the split, Steer is slashing .324/.437/.620 with a 181 wRC+. The 28-year-old also owns a .602 expected slugging percentage versus LHPs, which is the eighth-highest mark in MLB among qualified hitters. Southpaws beware. On Friday, Shota Imanaga will travel to Great American Ball Park to toe the rubber. That alone should be making bettors in this market perk up. Imanaga has struggled with the home run ball since coming to MLB in 2024 — and the last seven weeks have been no different. Since May 18, Imanaga has surrendered a stunning 2.96 long balls per nine over a 48.2 innings span. Unsurprisingly, the lefty’s ERA is an ugly 6.47 within that stretch. Woof.
Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Home Run (+287)
I’m not quite sure how JP Sears managed to throw five scoreless innings against the Dodgers on Sunday, but even with that successful outing under his belt, the veteran lefty has given up 2.35 opponent home runs per nine in his three starts with the Padres in 2026. If that seems like a small sample to you, just remember that Sears is also the guy who conceded 92 longs balls from 2023 to 2025 — the most of any pitcher in MLB. There’s a track record here. Meanwhile, Okamoto is enjoying a very solid rookie campaign in North America, after being one of the best bats in the NPB for years. In fact, Okamoto is tied for 11th in baseball in home runs (21) following a grand slam in his last game on Wednesday. Okamoto struggled for a bit as he was adjusting to the league’s pitching, but since May 27, the RHB is slashing .269/.340/.552 with a 147 wRC+. The 30-year-old has lived up to, and exceeded, all expectations.
Manny Machado 1+ Home Run (+423)
At just 31-years-old, I’m not quite ready to say that Shane Bieber is cooked, but the former Cy Young Award winner has not looked good since coming off the IL in mid-June for his season debut. In just 13.0 innings of work, Bieber has allowed eight barrels and six home runs. Obviously we’re dealing with small samples here, but that equates out to 4.15 opponent long balls per nine with a 54.2% opponent hard hit rate. Needless to say, those figures would both be worst in the league among qualified pitchers by a wide margin, if prorated over the full season. The Padres don’t hit a ton of home runs, which could work in Bieber’s favor, yet the one bat I’d be sweating is Manny Machado, who has turned his underwhelming campaign around in the past month. Since June 9, Machado is mustering a .347 ISO and a .602 slugging percentage across 116 plate appearances. He hit his 19th homer of the year on Thursday, so he’ll be seeking No. 20 this evening. I think there’s a good chance he gets it.
