It’s time for our first quarterfinal matchup in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. We get a rematch of the 2022 semifinals, with France and Morocco meeting once again. There’s a lot of attacking talent on both sides, years-long rivalries, and matchups between current and former teammates. But who will find the back of the net first?
France currently sits as a -390 favorite to advance on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Morocco is the underdog at +295. Les Bleus have -180 odds to win in regulation, with Morocco at +550, and +290 odds that the two squads are level after 90 minutes. Let’s get into the best first goal scorer bet for this match.
France vs. Morocco First Goalscorer Pick
First things first, let’s look at the first goalscorer odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook:
Now, let’s get into the numbers for each side regarding the first goals.
France has scored the first goal in all five of their matches in this World Cup. Kylian Mbappé scored the first goal against Paraguay, Sweden, Iraq, and Senegal. Ousmane Dembélé was the first goal scorer in their group stage match against Norway. The Moroccans have been the first goal scorers in three of their five matches: Ismael Saibari scored the opener against Brazil and Scotland, while Azzedine Ounahi broke the draw against Canada in the Round of 16.
So, overall, we have eight of 10 instances where these two teams scored first in the lead-up to this matchup. Mbappé, who owns the shortest odds to score first, leads the way with four opening goals. His striker counterpart, Saibari, has two, while Dembélé and Ounahi have one apiece.
The easy answer here is Mbappé, in the running for his second straight Golden Boot award. He’s scored half of France’s 14 goals so far. But where else can we look for value? Dembélé has four goals of his own and is no slouch, but it’s worth noting that three of those goals came against a Norwegian team that sat most of its regulars. Bradley Barcola, Dembélé’s PSG teammate, has a pair of goals himself. Désiré Doué, another PSG man, is the only other Frenchman to get a goal in this tournament.
Here, it’s worth looking at who has scored against Morocco. They’ve allowed four goals in the tournament: one own goal, two goals to wingers, and one goal to an attacking midfielder. Of course, they haven’t faced a striker quite like Mbappé, but it does point to their areas of weakness. Achraf Hakimi (look, more PSG!) isn’t known for his defense and tends to play high up the pitch to juice Morocco’s attack. That creates a lot of space behind for his mark, Barcola, who is arguably France’s best deep-ball threat. Maybe Mbappé buries the first goal and makes me look stupid, but I’m taking the value on Barcola to get behind the Moroccan back line for the first goal.
