Major League Baseball is ready to celebrate July 4 with a full slate of 15 games that should feature plenty of fireworks. It’s an offense-friendly slate of matchups, and the hot and humid weather should result in plenty of long balls. As we examine the 15 matchups on the scoreboard, a few strong places to attack for home run props stand out. Taking a look at all the environments, matchups and odds, my top home run props from Saturday are all from the later games in great homer ballparks. I’m backing Rafael Devers at Coors Field, Owen Caissie at Sutter Health Park, and Freddie Freeman at Dodger Stadium.
It should be a great day to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers | Giants | Devers has seven homers in his last 15 games with a 61% hard-hit rate and a 22% barrel rate over that span. He’ll face rookie Sean Sullivan who lefties have a .421 ISO and 14.3% barrel rate against this year. |
| Owen Caissie | Marlins | Caissie gets a great matchup at Sutter Health Park against Aaron Civale, who has served up 14 homers in 14 starts, 10 of which have come across his six home starts at this hitter-friendly park. |
| Freddie Freeman | Dodgers | The left-handed Freeman has most of his homers against righties this year and faces Griffin Canning, who’s allowed eight homers to lefty bats and has given up a pair of dingers to Freeman in the past. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Saturday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+224)
The odds here are a little shorter than I usually target, but it’s a prime environment and matchup and Devers comes in with great momentum.
The lefty is up to 16 homers on the season after smashing seven long balls in his last 15 games. He’s 16-for-53 (.302) with three doubles over that time as well, with a 61% hard-hit rate and a 22% barrel rate over that span.
He smashed homer No. 16 on Friday in the series opener at Coors Field:
He’ll be in a great matchup even though Tomoyuki Sugano (back) was scratched and Seth Sullivan will start in his place. Sullivan has served up four homers in his four starts and has an 8.64 ERA. Even though he’s a lefty, lefties have hit two of those blasts against him and have a .421 ISO and 14.3% barrel rate.
Devers has a hot enough bat to play him at these odds even in a lefty-lefty matchup at Coors Field, which is always a great place for home run props.
Owen Caissie to hit a home run (+337)
Caissie is another lefty who is mashing lately. He has five homers in his last 15 games while hitting .357 (15-for-42) with a 57.1% hard-hit rate and a 24.1% barrel rate over that span. Caissie also homered on Friday in Sacramento after a ticker-tape shot on Tuesday.
All 11 of Caissie’s homers this season have come against right-handed pitching, and the former top prospect looks ready to realize his potential as part of the Marlins’ improving young lineup.
On Saturday night, he’ll be in Sacramento at Sutter Health Park with hot temperatures and the wind blowing out as he takes on righty Aaron Civale. Civale has allowed 14 homers in his 14 starts this season, including 10 homers in his six home starts. In 27 2/3 innings at Sutter Health Park, he has served up six homers. Lefties have hit 10 homers against Civale this season with a .259 ISO and 45.7% hard-hit rate.
Caissie is in a great spot to go yard again on Saturday in what should be another great environment.
Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+483)
The last matchup of the night is from the West Coast as the Padres take on the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine. Dodger Stadium has been a launch pad this year and the temperatures will be hot with the wind blowing out again on Saturday night.
The 36-year-old lefty has been heating up lately with four homers in his last 18 games. He is hitting .364 during his 18-game on-base streak with a .465 wOBA and 12.7% barrel rate over that span. He also homered on Wednesday in Sacramento and is up to 14 dingers on the season.
Freeman has hit 11 of his 14 homers against righties and he’ll be in a good spot against righty Griffin Canning, who has allowed eight homers in his 11 games this season. He has given up four home runs in five road games with an 8.41 ERA. Lefties have hit all eight of the homers against Canning this season and have a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate.
Freeman has homered against Canning, going 2-for-11 with two homers in their past meetings.
It seems like taking Freeman to hit a home run on the Fourth of July seems like the poetic thing to do as we celebrate the nation’s birthday. Let Freeman ring!
