Friday night’s MLB schedule is jam-packed with all 30 teams in action under the lights. The game environments in general look ideal for home run props, with plenty of long balls looking likely as the weather is generally warm with the wind blowing out. Get ready for plenty of round-trippers with this Friday night’s forecast! My top home run props from the 15 games on the board are Zack Gelof, Colton Cowser and Angel Martinez.
It should be a great day to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Gelof | Athletics | Gelof still brings some value to the home run launch pad in Las Vegas. He had 2 HR in 3 G this week vs. MIL and has a 13.6% barrel rate over his last eight games coming into a great matchup against Zach Agnos and the Rockies. |
| Colton Cowser | Baltimore Orioles | Cowser has 3 HR in his last six games with a 20% barrel rate. He faces Griffin Canning, who has given up 6 HR in 7 GS, all to lefties. |
| Angel Martinez | Cleveland Guardians | Martinez had 2 HR in his last 3 games coming into this matchup with Jack Flaherty. Of his 11 homers this season, 8 have been at home, and 8 have been vs. RHP. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Friday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Zack Gelof to hit a home run (+287)
The Athletics’ limited-time Vegas residency continues through the weekend, so look for plenty of long balls from both the A’s and Rockies this weekend. Sluggers like Shea Langeliers (+155) and Nick Kurtz (+170) have extremely short odds to go yard in this matchup, but there is still a little value to be had in some of the less popular plays like Geof, Max Muncy (+384) or even Jake McCarthy (+670) from the Rockies.
Gelof hit a pair of homers in the series to start the week in Vegas against the Brewers, when the two teams combined for 22 dingers in three games, including 11 in the first game of the series. Gelof is up to eight homers on the year and has had a strong bounce-back season after injuries and lack of contact derailed him after his initial breakthrough in 2023. After an ugly 45.5% K% last season, he only has a 25.7% K% this season with a .197 ISO, .266 batting average, and .339 wOBA. He has at least one hard-hit ball in four straight games and has a 13.6% barrel rate over his last eight games.
He has an excellent matchup against righty Zach Agnos, who has allowed eight homers in 40 innings in the majors this season, including five homers in his last three games, in which he has allowed 16 runs on 40 hits with a 7.5 HR/9, a 66.7% hard-hit rate, and a 20% barrel rate against him.
Gelof is a nice balance of value and upside as he looks to continue to thrive in Vegas.
Colton Cowser to hit a home run (+467)
Before we get to the Vegas portion of the schedule, the Orioles play one of the early games, as they welcome in the Padres and face Griffin Canning. The weather will be favorable for hitting in Baltimore on Friday night with temperatures in the mid-80s and the breeze blowing out.
Cowser has been on a recent power binge, smashing three homers in his last six games.
He has seven homers in his 60 games this season and has posted a 46.7% hard-hit rate and 20% barrel rate in those six contests. He only has four hits in those six games, but since three have left the yard, he still is a solid option for home run props despite his low average.
Furthermore, he’s in a favorable spot against Canning, who is 0-4 with a 6.34 ERA in his seven starts this season. He has been even worse on the road, going 0-2 with a 12.15 ERA in his two road outings. Lefties have done almost all the damage against Canning this season, hitting .282 with a .404 wOBA, and a .282 ISO. Lefties have a 58.6% hard-hit rate and 13.8% barrel rate against Canning, which is enough to make the left-handed Cowser a nice value slugger to consider this Friday.
Angel Martinez to hit a home run (+590)
The Guardians and Tigers meet in Cleveland in another game in the early wave, and Martinez is another great spot to get good value for home run props. The 24-year-old switch-hitter has displayed dramatic improvement at the plate this season, and he has already matched his total of 11 homers from last season while boosting his wOBA from .274 to .313.
He hit two homers in the Guardians’ series against the Yankees to start the week, including this smash to lead off the game on Wednesday.
Eight of his 11 homers have been at home, and eight of his 11 homers have been against righties. He’ll face righty Jack Flaherty of the Tigers at Progressive Field on Friday, and Flaherty has gone 1-7 with a 5.31 ERA in his 14 games. He has allowed six homers in his seven road starts, and lefties have hit four of those homers with a .308 batting average, a .417 wOBA, and a .231 ISO against Flaherty when he’s on the road.
Martinez still brings great value to the matchup, and he’s becoming a key contributor in the always-overachieving Guardians lineup.
