The New Jersey Devils visit the Toronto Maple Leafs on Sunday night, with puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena. On DraftKings Sportsbook, New Jersey is a -155 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Maple Leafs vs. Devils prediction and best bet.
Maple Leafs vs. Devils Odds
| Market | New Jersey Devils | Toronto Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -155 | +130 |
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+160) | +1.5 (-192) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (+105) | Under 6.5 (-125) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Maple Leafs vs. Devils Betting Preview
Toronto Maple Leafs Outlook
Toronto has dropped back-to-back home games, and the offense has been oddly quiet at home all season, scoring two goals or fewer in six of its 10 home games. The Maple Leafs have scored 39 goals at 5v5 on just 31.9 xGoals, so their finishing has done a lot of the heavy lifting, while their 2.14 5v5 xGoals per 60 rank 28th. Over their past 10 outings, no team in the NHL has generated fewer high-danger shots.
Of course, Auston Matthews (11G, 16A) leads the club with 27 points, and William Nylander (11G, 11A) matches him with 11 goals. John Tavares made his return from a lower-body injury on Saturday, which should help spark the depth production. Anthony Stolarz will likely get the start after Sergei Bobrovsky was out there in each of the past two games, which is oddly an upgrade for Toronto, as Bobrovsky hasn’t looked the same the past two seasons (an .877 SV% last season and .886 this season). Stolarz sports a 5-1-0 record with a .910 SV% and 2.66 GAA, and his +2.2 GSAx and +0.61% SV% above expected both rank 19th among 75 goaltenders.
New Jersey Devils Outlook
New Jersey has been the best possession team in hockey, plain and simple. The Devils’ 58.3% Corsi% ranks first, their 59.0% xGoals share ranks second, and their 2.50 xGoals against per 60 are tied for the fewest in the NHL. Jack Hughes (9G, 14A) leads the team with 23 points, and the Devils have controlled 63.3% of the 5v5 xGoals with him on the ice, while Arseny Gritsyuk (8G, 5A) has scored seven of his eight goals at 5v5.
The one area that has held New Jersey back has been between the pipes, where it has allowed 51 goals on 43.2 xGoals. Connor Hellebuyck is expected to start after Jake Allen took the crease on Saturday against the Islanders. While Hellebuyck is a perfect 4-0-0 thus far, his .891 SV%, -1.2 GSAx (46th) and -0.70% SV% above expected (53rd) suggest that he is not necessarily the reason for that.
Maple Leafs vs. Devils Prediction and Best Bet
Toronto has won three of the past five meetings between these teams, but New Jersey took the most recent one, 5-2, in Toronto on Oct. 21 last season. The Leafs have been lackluster at home, and the Devils prevent chances better than any team, which is bad news for an offense that ranks 28th in 5v5 xGoals per 60. I’ll take Toronto’s team total under at plus money.
Best Bet: Maple Leafs Team Total Under 2.5 (+110)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
