The Emirates NBA Cup proved to be prophetic, as for the first time in the competition’s three-year history, the same teams that contested the NBA Cup final (the New York Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs) will meet again in the NBA Finals. In the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup, the final has twice been contested between the two teams that would eventually go on to meet again in the WNBA Finals, though in each case, the loser ended up getting its revenge in the Finals.
Thus, the next month of WNBA action could be prophetic, as all of this week’s games count towards the Commissioner’s Cup standings. The tournament will begin tonight with an 8:10 p.m. ET matchup between Seattle Storm, who won the 2021 edition, and the Dallas Wings, who have never made it to the final.
Dallas is a 12.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-650 Moneyline), with the total set at 166.5 points. The Storm are +470 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the tournament tone-setter and offer a prediction.
Storm at Wings prediction, pick
Given their performances last season, these teams could’ve hardly had more opposite experiences in 2026. The Wings finished with the league’s worst record last season, but so far, they sit 5-3, tied for the third-best mark in basketball. They’ve especially thrived offensively, posting the league’s highest offensive rating so far, and while their defense hasn’t been great (fourth-worst), it’s been solid enough for them to manage the third-best net rating. Back-to-back first overall picks Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd are playing up to their pedigrees, and Jessica Shepard has provided some much-needed stability in the front-court. Seattle, on the other hand, made the playoffs last season and took the eventual champion Las Vegas Aces to a decisive Game 3 in the first round, but it is just 3-6 so far in 2026, pairing the league’s fifth-best defense with its second-worst offense. Skylar Diggins, Brittney Sykes, and Nneka Ogwumike all left the team over the summer, and both 2025 second overall pick Dominique Malonga and 2026 third overall pick Awa Fam have been limited to just three games. Ezi Magbegor has yet to make her season debut.
Despite not having any of their top three centers available for much of the season, the Storm could actually could have the advantage in paint play. They’ve been out-scored by 4.0 points per game in the paint, while Dallas has lost the battle by 9.5 points per game. Mainly, that’s defensive; while Seattle has allowed the fifth-fewest shots per game within five feet and limited opponents to a league-average percentage, the Wings have given up the most shots in that range and the third-highest percentage. Given Dallas’ personnel (among the six players averaging at least 15 minutes per game, only Shepard and Alanna Smith are more than six feet tall), that could be sustainable. Offensively, both teams have struggled to get downhill, and the Storm have compounded their issues by finishing poorly, and Malonga, the only elite high-volume finisher on the roster, remains out.
Neither team has been particularly good on the glass, but the Wings should have a small edge. This season, they rank eighth in rebounding percentage, snagging exactly half of all available boards, while Seattle ranks third-to-last. Additionally, the Wings have been the league’s best transition team, averaging 2.1 more fast break points per game than any other team while allowing the third-fewest, and that could be a problem for the Storm, who have allowed the most fast break points and among the most points off of turnovers. Dallas has been slightly more disciplined, but it doesn’t draw many, and that could benefit Seattle, whose primary centers in Malonga’s and Magbegor’s stead have been among the league’s most foul-prone players this season.
The Wings have won this season through their shooting, and tonight should be no exception. For the season, Dallas ranks second in three-point percentage, with Bueckers, Fudd, and Odyssey Sims all connecting on more than 40% of their three-pointers and its most active shooter, Arike Ogunbowale, connecting at a respectable 33.3% clip. The Wings have also limited opponents to the second-fewest three-point attempts per game, and both teams have allowed opponents to make fewer than one-third of their attempts. Given Fudd’s gravity (the sixth-most in the league), Dallas should continue generating easier looks than the Storm, and they don’t have anybody with a long track record of elite shooting. Flau’jae Johnson was an excellent shooter in college, but she’s struggled to adapt to the WNBA so far, and Fudd’s solid defense makes her a difficult matchup.
Prior to the Wings’ elevation of Fudd to the starting lineup, I would’ve picked Seattle to cover the spread. Dallas doesn’t do all that many things at an elite level, and its mediocre rebounding and paint defense and its inability to draw fouls could prove problematic against a better team. However, the Storm aren’t well-suited to take advantage of those weaknesses, especially with Malonga and Magbegor sidelined, and the Bueckers-Fudd chemistry is real. In Fudd’s 181 minutes on the court, the Wings have been 32.4 points per 100 possessions better than with her off, and she’s scored at least 20 points in back-to-back games.
