We’re now more than two months into the 2023 MLB season, with the All-Star Game squarely in sight, and “it’s still early!” has become a less convincing excuse for would-be contenders who’ve struggled out of the gate as well as would-be rebuilds that find themselves holding playoff spots. The postseason picture is beginning to come into focus, and that’s led to plenty of movement in our power rankings this week.
The Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers squared off in a possible ALCS preview, while the New York Yankees adjust to life without Aaron Judge (at least for now) and the red-hot Arizona Diamondbacks are threatening to leave the Los Angeles Dodgers in their rearview mirror in the NL West. Who’s rising? Who’s falling? Where does your favorite team land? Read on to find out.
Tier 1
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Texas Rangers
Jacob deGrom’s heartbreaking Tommy John diagnosis underlined the gap in starting pitching between the Rangers and Rays, an advantage that Tampa exploited this weekend thanks to Tyler Glasnow and Shane McClanahan. The Braves have earned their place here as the prohibitive NL favorites — and Atlanta has won its last three series, including a sweep of the rival Mets — but we still have plenty of questions about their pitching long-term, and that powerful offense has a tendency to blow a bit hot and cold.
Tier 2
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Los Angeles Dodgers
6. Houston Astros
7. Baltimore Orioles
8. New York Yankees
Yes, the schedule has been pretty favorable, but Arizona was also one out away from securing a series win over the Braves before Eddie Rosario’s dramatic ninth-inning grand slam. This lineup is legit, and as long as Merrill Kelly keeps pitching like an ace — a big if, I’ll grant you — there’s no reason why the D-backs can’t be as good as anyone in the NL not named Atlanta. After the top five, however, everyone else seems to be in a holding pattern: The Astros lost Yordan Alvarez just as they were starting to get on a roll, while the Yankees will be without Aaron Judge for at least 2-3 weeks. (The Orioles, meanwhile, need to find their offense again, because this pitching staff isn’t going to carry them through October.)
Tier 3
9. Miami Marlins
10. Toronto Blue Jays
11. Los Angeles Angels
12. Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Milwaukee Brewers
14. Minnesota Twins
Break up the [checks notes] Marlins? Miami might soon find itself with too much starting pitching, with top prospect Eury Perez showing no signs of slowing down while Trevor Rogers nears a return from his biceps injury. Luis Arraez, Bryan de la Cruz and Jorge Soler form a legitimate heart of the order, meaning you can underestimate the Fish at your own risk. The Blue Jays continue to somehow be less than the sum of their parts, while the Angels will need more consistency from their rotation if they want to break free of the .500 trap they’ve been stuck in all year. (Reid Detmers’ recent form would certainly help.)
The back half of this tier is comprised of the leaders of the, uh, less-than-stellar Central divisions. Pittsburgh gets the nod over Milwaukee for now, but Brandon Woodruff looms as an X-factor down the stretch. (We refuse to give the Twins credit for their pitching potential in a short series until their offense stops burying itself under an avalanche of strikeouts.)
Tier 4
15. San Francisco Giants
16. Philadelphia Phillies
17. San Diego Padres
18. Seattle Mariners
19. Cleveland Guardians
20. New York Mets
21. Boston Red Sox
The Giants keep finding ways to stay afloat, and it might be more sustainable than you think: This has been one of baseball’s best bullpens for a while now, the offense is sneaky deep with J.D. Davis and Michael Conforto enjoying bounce-back seasons and Logan Webb, Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani are a solid core to build a rotation around. It’s not an even year, but it’s got that vibe in the Bay right now.
After that, the vibes start to get worse in a hurry. I’m still a believer in Philly, especially if Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler can find this form consistently (or just face the Tigers every time out). Coors Field might be what the Padres need to start playing up to the names on their roster, while Cleveland’s offense has finally woken up after a season-long slumber. Triston McKenzie’s return nudges them above the maddening Mets and a Red Sox team that has glaring red flags in their rotation right now — if Josh Naylor keeps this up, don’t be surprised if the Guardians start looking a lot like last year’s team that nearly made the ALCS.
Tier 5
22. Chicago White Sox
23. Chicago Cubs
24. Cincinnati Reds
25. St. Louis Cardinals
The two Chicago clubs are trending in opposite directions right now, although the Cubs did snag a much-needed series win against the Giants this weekend. The White Sox have the talent to make noise in the AL Central, but I’ll believe that Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn can all be effective at the same time when I actually see it. The Cardinals continue to scuffle amid injuries and poor pitching, so I’ll give a slight nod to Elly De La Cruz and the Reds’ merry band of talented youngsters.
Tier 6
26. Washington Nationals
27. Colorado Rockies
28. Detroit Tigers
The bottom has fallen out of Detroit’s plucky start, as Riley Greene’s injury has left the Tigers with really no difference-makers at the plate. Nolan Jones has breathed life into the Rockies, but their rotation has been decimated by injuries, while the Nats should just be happy that MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray seem like keepers moving forward.
Tier 7
29. Kansas City Royals
30. Oakland Athletics
At this point, we need to start asking whether the Royals might eventually give the A’s a run for their money in the cellar. Vinnie Pasquantino’s shoulder injury leaves K.C.’s already dismal offense in a bind, while Oakland took series from both the Pirates and Brewers this week.