One spot remains in the English FA Cup semifinals. Two teams fighting a Premier League relegation battle, West Ham and Leeds United, will face off on Sunday for the last spot. Who emerges from the fray and moves one step closer to a trophy?
West Ham are +145 favorites on the moneyline for this one on DraftKings Sportsbook, with a draw available at +250. A Leeds United upset is priced at +180. West Ham is -125 to advance outright, while Leeds sits at -105. Let’s get into a prediction and a pick for this match.
West Ham vs. Leeds Prediction, Pick
West Ham sure have sweated it out to get here. They started with a 2-1 win over Queens Park Rangers, followed by a 1-0 win over Burton. Tight wins over lower-tier sides didn’t exactly inspire confidence. Brentford was their biggest test to date, and it came down to penalties to settle the affair. West Ham were cool and collected from the spot, burying all five kicks to advance to the quarterfinals.
Leeds United also had its mettle tested through this FA Cup run. After coasting to a win over Derby County, they needed penalties to decide the match against Birmingham City, a result that would have been a shock. Things got back to normal after they put the hurt on Norwich in the last round.
In fact, the FA Cup has been the only consistent thing for Leeds United over the last month and a half. The club is winless in its last six Premier League matches, putting it in danger of relegation. All the better for West Ham, who have been in the drop zone for most of the season. Some key points in recent games have given them hope. But the focus here for both teams is a trophy.
The back lines are the key here. Both Leeds and West Ham are in the bottom five of the EPL in total goals allowed. Finding their marks and holding their lines have not been strong suits. They’re also near the bottom in total goals scored; that places a huge burden on the big creators. For West Ham, can Jarrod Bowen get loose and make a difference with Crysencio Summerville out? Will Anton Stach continue his excellent run for Leeds in central midfield?
Aside from the recent run of play, I have more confidence in this Leeds team. In what promises to be a nervy affair, the team controlling midfield play has a significant advantage. I have confidence that Stach, Ethan Ampadu, and Brenden Aaronson can dictate the flow of the game. That’s more than enough for Leeds to control possession and the match.
