Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has made this offense worth getting excited about again. New England still managed to lose 30-24 at Chicago, and now receiver A.J. Brown and running back TreVeyon Henderson are out. It’s delightful to see Maye back in MVP form, and exasperating how much he has to rescue. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Dolphins vs. Patriots prediction, preview
On dropbacks lasting 4+ seconds, Maye has completed 21 passes for 449 yards and posted a 132.7 passer rating; he leads qualifying quarterbacks with +0.40 EPA/dropback on those plays. Receiver DeMario Douglas has caught seven passes for 124 yards in that sample. New England practices receiver spacing for these extended plays, helping Douglas find somewhere Maye can reach him after escaping pressure. They’re doing some wonderful work once the original play breaks down.
Miami has been miserably accommodating to opposing passers, allowing them to complete 76.6% of their throws with a 116.8 passer rating. Patriots tight end Hunter Henry caught all seven targets for 71 yards against Chicago, and the Dolphins have surrendered 7.3 catches and 74.7 receiving yards per game to his position. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson can protect Maye and catch passes, too. With receivers Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins also unavailable, New England needs those dependable players involved.
Defending Miami gives me more trouble. New England has allowed +0.23 EPA/dropback in zone versus -0.36 in man under defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr. Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis has fared better against man (+0.17 EPA/dropback) than zone (-0.15), and against blitzes than rushes of four or fewer. Kuhr’s preferred aggression could give Willis exactly the opportunities he needs. However Kuhr calls it, his defenders have to tackle and pass off receivers cleanly.
Patriots vs. Dolphins pick, best bet
Dolphins offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik complicates those jobs with motion, pulling blockers and quarterback keepers, making defenders account for Willis alongside running back Ollie Gordon II. Miami has rushed for 100+ yards in five straight games. Gordon gained 103 against the Jets, and Willis sealed that win with a fourth-down keeper. Over their last two games, the Dolphins have averaged 26 ppg and +0.12 EPA/play. They drove 91 yards for a touchdown against New York, though early-down failures and receiver mistakes can still unravel possessions.
Miami has to run without guard Kadyn Proctor, and both attacks could have to negotiate forecast thunderstorms with gusts around 25 mph. New England ranks 27th in rushing EPA, asking Maye’s depleted receiving corps to carry more of the offense; Miami has the stronger recent foundation for advancing on the ground. I’m taking the Dolphins +7. Henry and Douglas give Maye a way to win, but Gordon and Willis can make the Patriots defend sustained possessions and answer scores deep into the afternoon.
Best bet: Dolphins +7 (-115).
Projected score: Patriots 24, Dolphins 20.
