The Miami Open is on to the quarterfinals. The first quarterfinal of the day sees World No. 2 Elena Rybakina take on World No. 5 Jessica Pegula. The match begins at 1:00. p.m. ET.
Rybakina is -223 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Pegula is +180.
If this matchup looks familiar, it’s because these two top-five players have faced off three times in high-profile matchups over the past few months. Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina faced off in the semifinals at the end-of-year 2025 WTA Finals, in the semifinals at the Australian Open and in the quarterfinals at Indian Wells. They now meet for a fourth time in six months in the quarterfinals of the Miami Open. So, in the four biggest tournaments of the past half-year, Pegula and Rybakina have faced off in the quarterfinals or semifinals. The bad news for Jessica Pegula is that Elena Rybakina has won all three of those matchups.
Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina Preview
Elena Rybakina has cemented herself as the clear second-best, arguably the best, player in the world since the end of last season. She defeated Aryna Sabalenka to win both the WTA Finals at the end of last year and the Australian Open at the start of this year. Rybakina then had a third matchup with Sabalenka in the Indian Wells final, but Sabalenka finally got her revenge to secure that title. However, Rybakina has just kept the train rolling and is back in the quarterfinals here in Miami.
Jessica Pegula is playing some of the best tennis of her life, despite her inability to get past Elena Rybakina. Going back to last year’s US Open, she has been on an incredible run of high-level tennis. Pegula made it to the semifinals or final at each of the following events: the US Open, China Open, Wuhan Open, WTA Finals, Brisbane International and Australian Open. Not to mention Jessica Pegula won the title in Dubai before Indian Wells. That was seven straight tournaments making it to at least the semifinals until Indian Wells, where she was bounced in the quarterfinals by Rybakina. Pegula is demonstrating a level of consistent excellence that arguably only Aryna Sabalenka has topped over the past few months. There is just one thing she needs to do to take that next step: beat Rybakina.
Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this match is on Jessica Pegula to get the win. I am backing the American to finally get her revenge here in Miami. These two have been matched up so many times in high-profile matches recently, but it would be fitting for Pegula to take Rybakina down here in Miami. The first time these two ever played each other was in the Round of 32 at the 2022 Miami Open. Jessica Pegula won that match 6-3, 6-4. Pegula actually won three of the first four meetings between these two players before Rybakina went on her four-match winning streak that she is currently on.
So, Pegula is clearly capable of beating Rybakina. She just needs a couple of things to bounce her way. In each of their last two meetings, the second set went to a tiebreaker, which Rybakina won. At the WTA Finals, Pegula won the first set before Rybakina rattled off two in a row to win the match. Rybakina is dominating these meetings; she is just winning the few key points needed to flip a match. Over the last seven months, Pegula has managed to win those points against every opponent she has faced other than Rybakina. Pegula is simply playing at too high a level to be +180 on the Moneyline against anyone. The value is on the American to pull off the upset and move on to the semifinals.
