Just as it did last season, the seeding race in the Western Conference looks like it’s going to come down to the wire. Just three games separate the third-seeded Los Angeles Lakers from the sixth-seeded Denver Nuggets, and while the seventh-seeded Phoenix Suns’ four-game skid helps the top-six seeds feel a little bit more comfortable, it’s not a guarantee that one of them won’t fall out. The Minnesota Timberwolves could be a candidate to do just that, depending on how much time Anthony Edwards ends up missing.
The Timberwolves will have a fairly tough test tonight at 8:10 p.m. ET when they host the Portland Trail Blazers, who are likely to make the Play-In Tournament.
Minnesota should be pretty healthy besides Edwards, as the only other rotation player on its injury report is backup center Naz Reid, who’s questionable with an ankle sprain. Meanwhile, Portland’s only major absence is guard Shaedon Sharpe (fibula), though sharpshooter Vít Krejči is questionable with an illness.
Even without Edwards, the Timberwolves are 2.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-135 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 231.5. The Trail Blazers are +114 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this divisional matchup and offer a prediction.
Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves preview, prediction
Portland is 2-1 on its road trip so far, though it’s hard to look too much into its wins, given that they came against the lowly Brooklyn Nets and even lowlier Indiana Pacers. Overall, the fact that the Trail Blazers are 5-5 in their last 10 games shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, given that they’ve hung around .500 all season. But Portland hasn’t beaten any good teams recently; its only post-All-Star-break win over a team at .500 or better came on February 22 against the Suns, who were without both Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks, so a win over Minnesota, even without Edwards, would be a big step forward.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have fared reasonably well without their star shooting guard, winning each of their last two games without him, and they’re a solid 9-5 overall since the All-Star break. Julius Randle has taken on bigger offensive responsibility as of late, scoring 30 or more points in two of his last three games, and trade-deadline acquisition Ayo Dosunmu has done what he was acquired to do — knock down jumpers and make few mistakes. Despite Minnesota’s inconsistency, it has the pieces to compete for a championship with a fully healthy Edwards.
Trail Blazers at Timberwolves pick, best bet
The Timberwolves have actually been better this season with Edwards off the floor. In his minutes, their offense has improved by 4.3 points per 100 possessions, but their defense has been 6.3 points per 100 possessions worse, even though he’s graded as only a slightly negative individual defender by RAPM’s standards. Individually, Edwards is a much better player than Sharpe, but the Trail Blazers have regressed less with Sharpe on the floor than Minnesota has with Edwards. Portland has been much the same team on both sides of the ball without the Canadian, though it has moved the ball better without the isolation-oriented Sharpe.
Both the Trail Blazers and the Timberwolves have done an excellent job walling off the paint. Though Minnesota has allowed an above-average number of attempts inside the restricted area since the All-Star break, that’s in large part a result of Edwards’ sometimes lackadaisical perimeter defense, and it has remained an elite rim-protecting team because of Gobert. Portland, meanwhile, has been even better on the interior as of late because of 2024 first-round pick Donovan Clingan’s improvements. The Timberwolves are a slightly better driving team, but they might have more trouble getting downhill tonight without Edwards, who ranks second league-wide in gravity and 36th in drives per game.
Both of these teams are competitive on the glass, as each ranks in the top 10 in rebounding percentage, and the Trail Blazers have been especially dominant on the offensive boards, thanks to Clingan, who leads the league in offensive rebounds per game. Minnesota should have a slight advantage in transition, though not because it has been great at racking up steals but because Portland has coughed up 1.3 more turnovers per game than any other team. However, the Timberwolves tend to get in foul trouble, getting whistled the fourth-most times per game, and the Trail Blazers have one of the league’s premier contact artists in Deni Avdija.
The game could swing on shooting, which would slightly benefit Minnesota. Since the All-Star break, Portland has allowed slightly more wide-open three-pointers per game than the Timberwolves have, though both teams have been solid at closing out. To be fair, the Trail Blazers have done a better job generating open looks, and they should be able to extend that advantage tonight with Edwards sidelined. But they just don’t have as much raw shooting talent as Minnesota: by three point percentage over expectation, five of the league’s top 44 qualified shooters play for the Timberwolves, while none play for Portland. It’s not like this is new for the Trail Blazers; last season, they also finished in the bottom five in three-point percentage, while Minnesota ranked fourth.
Despite its inability to shoot, Portland matches up well overall, as Clingan’s rebounding prowess means it can hang with Gobert inside. Plus, Avdija’s ability to draw contact consistently proves a challenge for the indisciplined Timberwolves, and they might force fewer turnovers without Edwards, who ranks third on the team in deflections and loose balls recovered. To be fair, Minnesota has won each of the teams’ previous three matchups, but two of them were decided by four or fewer points, and Edwards combined for 75 points and a plus-16 in those games. At plus-money, it’s worth banking on the Trail Blazers’ shooters to have a good night.
