Not all first overall picks are created equal.
The 2025 top selection, Cooper Flagg, has turned into the Dallas Mavericks’ best player at just 19 years old and arguably has the highest trade value of anyone not named Victor Wembanyama. The Atlanta Hawks, meanwhile, have turned 2024 first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher into a role player, dropping him to the bench for C.J. McCollum in what has proven to be a winning move so far.
The stark contrast between the start of Flagg’s career and the start of Risacher’s will be on display tonight when the Mavericks host the red-hot Hawks at 8:40 p.m. ET.
Dallas will have its typically long injury report, as in addition to the players out for the season, Brandon Williams (concussion) is out and Daniel Gafford (illness) and Caleb Martin (foot) are questionable. Atlanta’s is shorter, as Jonathan Kuminga (knee) is the only contributor with an injury designation.
The Hawks are 8.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-340 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 238.5. The Mavericks are +270 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the battle of first overall picks and offer a prediction.
Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks preview, prediction
Atlanta has not lost since dropping Risacher to the bench; across the course of its 10-game winning streak, Risacher has started just once. To be fair, it’s partially been the result of an easy schedule as well, as the Hawks have only played two teams with a winning record across that span, and the Philadelphia 76ers were missing Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe in that matchup. McCollum hasn’t been particularly efficient, but his playmaking ability compares strongly to that of Risacher, and Jalen Johnson has continued his All-Star-level play.
Dallas, meanwhile, has struggled mightily for the better part of two months. Since January 24, the Mavericks are just 4-19, and Flagg missed eight straight games around the All-Star break as he dealt with a foot sprain. He finally made his return to action on March 5 and has been solid, averaging 18.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game, though he’s been fairly inefficient and Dallas has gone just 2-6, with wins only over the tanking Memphis Grizzlies and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Some of the players whom the Mavericks acquired in the Anthony Davis deal have played well; Khris Middleton had a 35-point effort in the win over Memphis.
Hawks at Mavericks pick, best bet
Atlanta’s numbers over its last 10 games are pretty overwhelming: it has the fourth-best offense and the best defense and net rating, and the new-look starting lineup of Johnson, McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, and Onyeka Okongwu has a plus-27.9 net rating in 217 minutes, the best among the 16 lineups to play at least 200 minutes together this season. Between McCollum’s scoring, Johnson’s playmaking, and Alexander-Walker and Daniels’ length, there’s something real there, even though the numbers have been boosted by an easy schedule and some good fortune.
Across that span, the Hawks have done a good job getting to the rim, averaging the fifth-most layups per game over the last 10 games, and while they haven’t finished at an elite rate, above-average has been sufficient. It should definitely be sufficient against a Dallas team that has allowed opponents to convert layups the fourth-highest rate since the players it acquired in the Anthony Davis deal made their debuts. They’ve still allowed a few too many layups — the fourth-most in basketball — but at least they’ve limited opponents to the fifth-lowest percentage in that span. The Mavericks, who have been roughly a league-average driving and finishing team, shouldn’t be much of a challenge.
Atlanta should also have an edge on the glass. For the season as a whole, the Hawks rank just 21st in total rebounding percentage, but that includes Trae Young’s 10 starts; in the last 10 games, they’ve led the league with a 56.0% rebounding percentage. Dallas, meanwhile, has been mediocre on the boards since the trade deadline. Across the last 10 games, Atlanta has also been dominant in transition, ranking in the top 11 in points off of turnovers and fast-break points on both sides of the ball, and the Mavericks haven’t been great either at forcing turnovers or getting back in transition. They do have a better foul differential, but that’s not going to be enough to turn around their disadvantages elsewhere.
Dallas also hasn’t been great at closing out on opposing shooters, allowing the sixth-most wide-open three-pointers per game since the trade deadline. Across that same span, the Hawks have allowed among the fewest — including the second-fewest across their win streak — and have arguably gotten unlucky that opponents have shot the third-highest percentage on such shots. Atlanta has also done an excellent job generating uncontested looks, attempting the second-most wide-open triples across the last 10 games, and the Mavericks have really struggled with spacing, attempting the second-fewest wide-open threes. Max Christie and Klay Thompson aside, Dallas doesn’t have much shooting talent on its roster.
Given the Hawks’ weak strength of schedule across the last 10 games, they’re probably not quite the juggernaut that their recent numbers suggest they’ve been. However, attempting a lot of layups and wide-open threes while allowing comparatively few easy shots is a sustainable formula, and it’s not like they’ve benefited from extraordinary shooting success. With the Mavericks’ poor spacing and rim protecting, Atlanta presents a bad matchup. The Hawks should get their 11th straight win in style.
