The Indian Wells Open is on to the men’s final. The final features World No. 11 Daniil Medvedev against World No. 2 Jannik Sinner. The match begins at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Sinner is -401 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Medvedev is a +314 underdog. This is my best bet to target for the Medvedev vs. Sinner match.
Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner Preview
The renaissance of Daniil Medvedev has been incredible to watch over the past few months. In 2021, Daniil Medvedev won the US Open, and then in 2022, he became the No. 1 player in the world. In the very short gap between the end of the Federer-Nadal era and the start of the Sinner-Alcaraz era, Daniil Medvedev emerged as the best player in the world for a short time. He was fighting against the great Novak Djokovic, who transcended both eras, for that spot, but he was racking up titles. However, his game has seen a massive dip over the past two years. In 2025, Medvedev only won one total match across the four majors. At the end of that major run, Medvedev decided it was time for a coaching change.
After Daniil Medvedev fired his long-time coach, Gilles Cervara, and hired his new coach, Thomas Johansson, he started to look like his old self again. He won the Almaty Open at the end of 2025, and then started 2026 by winning the Brisbane International. Medvedev made it twice as far as he had in any major last year at the Australian Open, getting to the fourth round. He then added his second title of the year in Dubai before heading to California. Medvedev is now one win away from being all the way back at the top of the sport.
Jannik Sinner has looked scary so far at Indian Wells. The former World No. 1 had a bit of a shaky start to 2026. After disappointingly losing to Carlos Alcaraz at last year’s US Open, relinquishing his World No. 1 status, Sinner lost to Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open semifinals. He broke a streak of five consecutive Grand Slam finals appearances with that loss. In his only other tournament played in 2026, Sinner exited the Qatar Open in the quarterfinals after losing to Jakub Mensik. However, any questions about his form have been stifled at Indian Wells. He has yet to drop a set across his five matches, including demolishing World No. 4 Alexander Zverev in the semifinals.
Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this match is for Daniil Medvedev to cover the spread of +1.5 sets. Medvedev looks to be back to the peak of his powers. The way he took Carlos Alcaraz down in two sets in the semifinals was the best anyone has played against Alcaraz in a long time. Medvedev is serving like his old self and has the confidence he has been severely lacking over the last couple of years. Over the last five years, Medvedev, along with Novak Djokovic, was the only player who could consistently challenge Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Tennis was missing Medvedev’s electric game and big personality, but it looks like he is back.
These two have played each other 15 times over the years, with Sinner leading the lifetime series 8-7. For a long time, Sinner could not beat Daniil Medvedev. Medvedev won the first six matchups between the two, including two finals. However, Sinner then rattled off five straight wins of his own, including three finals, one of them a major. Medvedev broke the streak temporarily by beating Sinner in the 2024 Wimbledon quarterfinals. However, his form really declined after that, and consequently, Sinner has won the last three meetings.
Daniil Medvedev has the better Indian Wells record between the two. This is Jannik Sinner’s first career trip to the Indian Wells final. Daniil Medvedev made the final in back-to-back years, 2023 and 2024, but lost to Carlos Alcaraz in both. He got his redemption over Alcaraz in the semifinals, and now he can take down Sinner to finally get this trophy in his hands.
